Polycentric development is one of the fundamental components of the European Spatial Planning and Development (ESPD) strategy and substantiates the legitimacy of a decentralized governance framework. Spatial planning in polycentric regions has often been found to be ineffective in achieving a truly sustainable development. Relatively few studies have explored the nature of the relationship between polycentric development and the increasing sensitivity of Mediterranean landscapes to desertification. This knowledge gap is somewhat surprising given that economic development has often been considered to be a driver of land degradation. Italian socioeconomic and territorial variables were investigated to determine if levels of land sensitivity to desertification (measured using a composite indicator) had increased more rapidly in mono-centric or polycentric systems. Distinctive settlement models have epitomized the spatio-temporal evolution of the composite indicator for the last 50 years. The first model, from the early 1960s to the early 1990s, reflects a spatially centralized and functionally mono-centric development with density, concentration, and agglomeration acting as key factors of change. Local systems with a purely mono-centric structure exhibited increasing levels of land sensitivity. The increase in land sensitivity from the early 1990s to the early 2010s, was spatially decentralized and mostly dependent on place-specific dynamics. Local systems reorganized themselves on the basis of individualized development models, attempting highly differentiated and poorly coordinated development paths. This study documents how the evolution toward spatially balanced polycentric models can mitigate the growth of land sensitivity in specific contexts. Managing transitions towards polycentric models with positive environmental implications calls for a proactive analysis of the background context, a clarification of socio-economic constraints and spatial limits to centralized and/or decentralized development processes.

多中心发展是欧洲空间规划与发展 (ESPD) 战略的基本组成部分之一，并证实了分散治理框架的合法性。人们经常发现多中心地区的空间规划无法实现真正​​的可持续发展。相对较少的研究探讨了多中心发展与地中海景观对荒漠化日益敏感之间关系的性质。鉴于经济发展通常被认为是土地退化的驱动因素，这种知识差距有点令人惊讶。对意大利社会经济和领土变量进行了调查，以确定土地对荒漠化的敏感性（使用综合指标衡量）在单中心或多中心系统中是否增加得更快。独特的结算模型是过去 50 年来综合指标的时空演变的缩影。第一个模型，从 1960 年代初到 1990 年代初，反映了空间集中和功能单一中心的发展，密度、集中和集聚是变化的关键因素。具有纯粹单中心结构的地方系统表现出越来越高的土地敏感性。从 1990 年代初到 2010 年代初，土地敏感性的增加在空间上是分散的，并且主要取决于特定地点的动态。地方系统在个性化发展模式的基础上进行自我重组，尝试高度差异化和协调性差的发展路径。本研究记录了向空间平衡多中心模型的演变如何在特定情况下减缓土地敏感性的增长。管理向具有积极环境影响的多中心模式的过渡需要对背景背景进行主动分析，澄清社会经济约束以及集中和/或分散发展过程的空间限制。本研究记录了向空间平衡多中心模型的演变如何在特定情况下减缓土地敏感性的增长。管理向具有积极环境影响的多中心模式的过渡需要对背景背景进行主动分析，澄清社会经济约束以及集中和/或分散发展过程的空间限制。这项研究记录了向空间平衡多中心模型的演变如何在特定环境中减缓土地敏感性的增长。管理向具有积极环境影响的多中心模式的过渡需要对背景背景进行主动分析，澄清社会经济约束以及集中和/或分散发展过程的空间限制。