Globally, wilderness areas are being lost at a rate that outpaces their protection, which has adverse effects on the global environment. Rapid action is needed to understand the trends and consequences of global wilderness change. We present projections of global wilderness decline in 2100 under the influence of land-use change within the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES). The projections revealed that the decline of wilderness was deeply affected by different global socioeconomic development pathways. The total wilderness loss (4.74%) in scenario A2 (with slow technological innovation and traditional demand for biofuels) was much higher than in the other scenarios. Around 76.51% of the loss of global wilderness globally occurs occurred in South America, which will occur in Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests. The smallest loss (0.08%) occurred in scenario B1 (with a high level of environmental consciousness). We found that wilderness losses in 2100 will be concentrated in some important biomes, which have relatively high-density carbon storage. These findings stress the importance of targeted wilderness protection to ensure the long-term integrity of ecosystems and the balance of the carbon cycle.

在全球范围内，荒野地区正在以超过其保护的速度消失，这对全球环境产生了不利影响。需要迅速采取行动来了解全球荒野变化的趋势和后果。我们在政府间气候变化专门委员会关于排放情景的特别报告 (IPCC SRES) 的框架内，提出了在土地利用变化的影响下，2100 年全球荒野减少的预测。预测显示，荒野的减少深受全球不同社会经济发展路径的影响。情景A2（技术创新缓慢和生物燃料传统需求）中的荒野总损失（4.74%）远高于其他情景。全球约 76.51% 的全球荒野损失发生在南美洲，这将发生在热带和亚热带湿润阔叶林中。损失最小（0.08%）发生在场景B1（环境意识水平高）。我们发现 2100 年的荒野损失将集中在一些重要的生物群落，这些生物群落的碳储存密度相对较高。这些发现强调了有针对性的荒野保护的重要性，以确保生态系统的长期完整性和碳循环的平衡。