The African Continental Free Trade Area agreement will create the largest single market in the world in terms of the number of countries and people. We analyse the effects of regional trade liberalisation on production fragmentation and networks using a global computable general equilibrium model adapted to take into account the value-added structure of international trade. This permits the analysis of the impact of trade policies in the presence of global upstream and downstream linkages through a counterfactual analysis. The analysis goes beyond previous studies by focusing on member countries’ agricultural and food integration in regional and global value chains through backward and forward linkages. Our simulation results suggest that the agreement could have a significant impact on trade patterns in terms of value-added structure and extra- or intra-regional destinations. The reduction in trade costs within the region has a higher incidence on agriculture and food backward intra-regional integration than on forward participation, but this pattern varies substantially across countries. We find that the continental agreement translates in more widely spread benefits across sectors if we consider the income generated within each sector (value added) rather than simply accounting for gross exports.

中文翻译：

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AfCFTA 对农业和食品贸易的影响：增值视角

非洲大陆自由贸易区协定将在国家和人口数量方面创造世界上最大的单一市场。我们使用适用于考虑国际贸易增值结构的全球可计算一般均衡模型分析区域贸易自由化对生产分散化和网络的影响。这允许通过反事实分析来分析存在全球上游和下游联系的贸易政策的影响。该分析超越了以往的研究，重点关注成员国通过后向和前向联系在区域和全球价值链中的农业和食品一体化。我们的模拟结果表明，该协议可能对增值结构和区域外或区域内目的地方面的贸易模式产生重大影响。区域内贸易成本的降低对农业和粮食后向区域内一体化的影响高于对前向参与的影响，但这种模式在各国之间存在很大差异。我们发现，如果我们考虑每个部门产生的收入（附加值）而不是简单地考虑总出口，那么大陆协议在各部门之间转化为更广泛的利益。