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RAM analysis of dynamic positioning system: An approach taking into account uncertainties and criticality equipment ratings
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-19 , DOI: 10.1177/1748006x211051805
Maria V Clavijo 1 , Adriana M Schleder 1, 2 , Enrique Lopez Droguett 3 , Marcelo R Martins 1
Affiliation  

Currently, a Dynamic Position (DP) System is commonly used for offshore operations. However, DP failures may generate environmental and economic losses; thus, this paper presents the Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) analysis for two different generations of DP system (DP2 and DP3) used in drilling operations. In addition to the RAM analysis, the approach proposed herein considers the uncertainties present in the equipment failure data and provides more information about criticality equipment ratings and probability density functions (pdf) of the repair times. The reliability analysis shows that, for 3 months of operation, the total failure probability of the DP2 system is 1.52% whereas this probability for the DP3 system is only 0.16%. The results reveal that the bus-bar is the most critical equipment of the DP2 system, whereas the wind sensor represents the priority equipment in the DP3 system. Using 90% confidence level, each DP configuration was evaluated for a 1-year operation, finding a reliability mean equal to 70.39% and 86.77% for the DP2 system and the DP3 system, respectively. The DP2 system asymptotic availability tends to present a constant value of 99.98% whereas for the DP3 system, it tends to be 99.99%. Finally, the maintainability analysis allows concluding that the mean time for system repair is expected to be 3.6 h. This paper presents a logical pathway for analysts, operators, and reliability engineers of the oil and gas industry.



中文翻译:

动态定位系统的 RAM 分析:一种考虑不确定性和临界设备等级的方法

目前,动态定位(DP)系统通常用于海上作业。但是,DP 故障可能会产生环境和经济损失;因此,本文介绍了钻井作业中使用的两代 DP 系统(DP2 和 DP3)的可靠性、可用性和可维护性 (RAM) 分析。除了 RAM 分析之外,本文提出的方法还考虑了设备故障数据中存在的不确定性,并提供了更多关于设备等级和维修时间概率密度函数 (pdf) 的信息。可靠性分析表明,运行 3 个月后,DP2 系统的总故障概率为 1.52%,而 DP3 系统的故障概率仅为 0.16%。结果表明母线是DP2系统最关键的设备,而风传感器代表DP3系统中的优先设备。使用 90% 的置信水平,对每个 DP 配置进行了为期 1 年的评估,发现 DP2 系统和 DP3 系统的可靠性平均值分别等于 70.39% 和 86.77%。DP2 系统渐近可用性趋向于呈现 99.98% 的恒定值,而对于 DP3 系统,它趋向于 99.99%。最后,可维护性分析得出的结论是,系统修复的平均时间预计为 3.6 小时。本文为石油和天然气行业的分析师、操作员和可靠性工程师提供了一条合乎逻辑的途径。DP2 系统和 DP3 系统分别为 77%。DP2 系统渐近可用性趋于呈现 99.98% 的恒定值,而对于 DP3 系统,它趋向于 99.99%。最后,可维护性分析得出的结论是,系统修复的平均时间预计为 3.6 小时。本文为石油和天然气行业的分析师、操作员和可靠性工程师提供了一条合乎逻辑的途径。DP2 系统和 DP3 系统分别为 77%。DP2 系统渐近可用性趋向于呈现 99.98% 的恒定值,而对于 DP3 系统,它趋向于 99.99%。最后,可维护性分析得出的结论是,系统修复的平均时间预计为 3.6 小时。本文为石油和天然气行业的分析师、操作员和可靠性工程师提供了一条合乎逻辑的途径。

更新日期:2021-10-19
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