Monte Carlo simulation has been widely used for reliability assessment of power electronic systems. In this approach, multiple simulations are carried out during the lifetime estimation of the components in power converter, e.g., power devices, where the parameter variations are considered. In the previous mission-profile based reliability assessment methods, the dynamic thermal stress profiles are usually converted into a set of static parameters. However, this simplification may introduce a certain uncertainty during the reliability assessment, since the static parameters may not be able to accurately represent the thermal stress under highly dynamic conditions. Moreover, the previous research did not take into account the correlation between the method of introducing the parameter variation and the required number of Monte Carlo simulations. This can significantly affect both the accuracy and computation burden of the Monte Carlo simulation. To address this issue, an in-depth analysis of Monte Carlo simulation applied to reliability assessment of power devices in power electronic systems is provided in this paper. Two additional Monte Carlo simulation approaches based on semi-dynamic and dynamic parameters are proposed, and their reliability evaluation results are compared with the traditional static parameter method. It is demonstrated in a case study of photovoltaic (PV) inverter application that the reliability of power converter can be overestimated up to 30% when using the static parameters.

中文翻译：

---

电力电子系统中功率器件的基于蒙特卡罗的可靠性估计方法

蒙特卡罗模拟已广泛用于电力电子系统的可靠性评估。在该方法中，在考虑参数变化的功率转换器中的组件（例如功率器件）的寿命估计期间执行多次模拟。在以前的基于任务曲线的可靠性评估方法中，动态热应力曲线通常被转换为一组静态参数。然而，这种简化可能会在可靠性评估过程中引入一定的不确定性，因为静态参数可能无法准确表示高动态条件下的热应力。而且，之前的研究没有考虑引入参数变化的方法与所需的蒙特卡罗模拟次数之间的相关性。这会显着影响蒙特卡罗模拟的准确性和计算负担。为了解决这个问题，本文对应用于电力电子系统中功率器件可靠性评估的蒙特卡罗模拟进行了深入分析。提出了另外两种基于半动态和动态参数的蒙特卡罗仿真方法，并将它们的可靠性评估结果与传统的静态参数方法进行了比较。在光伏 (PV) 逆变器应用案例研究中证明，使用静态参数时，功率转换器的可靠性可能被高估达 30%。本文对应用于电力电子系统中功率器件可靠性评估的蒙特卡罗模拟进行了深入分析。提出了另外两种基于半动态和动态参数的蒙特卡罗仿真方法，并将它们的可靠性评估结果与传统的静态参数方法进行了比较。在光伏 (PV) 逆变器应用案例研究中证明，使用静态参数时，功率转换器的可靠性可能被高估达 30%。本文对应用于电力电子系统中功率器件可靠性评估的蒙特卡罗模拟进行了深入分析。提出了另外两种基于半动态和动态参数的蒙特卡罗仿真方法，并将它们的可靠性评估结果与传统的静态参数方法进行了比较。在光伏 (PV) 逆变器应用案例研究中证明，使用静态参数时，功率转换器的可靠性可能被高估达 30%。