Food systems are increasingly challenged to meet growing demand for specialty crops due to the effects of climate change and increased competition for resources. Here, we apply an integrated methodology that includes climate, crop, economic and life cycle assessment models to US potato and tomato supply chains. We find that supply chains for two popular processed products in the United States, French fries and pasta sauce, will be remarkably resilient, through planting adaptation strategies that avoid higher temperatures. Land and water footprints will decline over time due to higher yields, and greenhouse gas emissions can be mitigated by waste reduction and process modification. Our integrated methodology can be applied to other crops, health-based consumer scenarios (fresh versus processed) and geographies, thereby informing decision-making throughout supply chains. Employing such methods will be essential as food systems are forced to adapt and transform to become carbon neutral due to the imperatives of climate change.

由于气候变化的影响和资源竞争加剧，粮食系统越来越难以满足对特种作物不断增长的需求。在这里，我们将包括气候、作物、经济和生命周期评估模型在内的综合方法应用于美国马铃薯和番茄供应链。我们发现，通过避免高温的种植适应策略，美国两种受欢迎的加工产品（炸薯条和意大利面酱）的供应链将具有显着的弹性。由于更高的产量，土地和水足迹将随着时间的推移而减少，并且可以通过减少废物和改进工艺来减少温室气体排放。我们的综合方法可应用于其他作物、基于健康的消费场景（新鲜与加工）和地域，从而为整个供应链的决策提供信息。由于气候变化的紧迫性，粮食系统被迫适应和转型以实现碳中和，因此采用此类方法至关重要。