Abstract

As efforts to reverse mass incarceration increase, so does the need to supervise more individuals in the community. Faced with heightened demand, community corrections agencies increasingly use risk assessment to allocate resources efficiently and improve public safety. While both static, historical factors as well as dynamic, changeable factors have been incorporated into risk assessment instruments, one factor notably absent is the amount of time an individual remains in the community recidivism-free. Using parametric and discrete hazard models, we examine the relationship between recidivism-free time and observed recidivism among individuals on parole supervision in Pennsylvania where dynamic risk assessment is used. Specifically, we assess whether recidivism-free time predicts recidivism independent of these risk scores and the extent to which single and repeated risk scores accurately predict recidivism. Findings support the use of dynamic risk instruments but suggest that recidivism prediction may benefit from considering recidivism-free time. Implications for community corrections policy are discussed.

摘要

随着扭转大规模监禁的努力的增加，监督社区中更多个人的需求也在增加。面对日益增长的需求，社区矫正机构越来越多地使用风险评估来有效地分配资源并改善公共安全。虽然静态、历史因素以及动态、可变因素都已纳入风险评估工具，但一个明显缺失的因素是个人在社区中没有再犯的时间。使用参数和离散危险模型，我们检查了宾夕法尼亚州假释监督中使用动态风险评估的个人的无累犯时间与观察到的累犯之间的关系。具体来说，我们评估无累犯时间是否独立于这些风险评分预测累犯，以及单一和重复风险评分准确预测累犯的程度。研究结果支持使用动态风险工具，但表明累犯预测可能受益于考虑无累犯时间。讨论了对社区矫正政策的影响。