Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been a global disaster, with over 746,312 confirmed cases and still counting in Indonesia, especially Jakarta, which has about 50 per cent asymptomatic confirmed cases. This paper aims to investigate the persistent factors of COVID-19 diagnosis using four scenarios of asymptomatic inclusion. We use Bayesian Logistic Regression to identify the factors of COVID-19 positivity, which can address issues in the traditional approach such as overfitting and uncertainty. This study discovers three main findings: (1) COVID-19 can infect people regardless of age; (2) Among twelve symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19), five symptoms increase the COVID-19 likelihood, and two symptoms decrease the possibility of COVID-19 infection; and (3) From an epidemiological perspective, the contact history rises the probability of COVID-19, while healthcare workers and people who did travel are less likely to become infected from COVID-19. Therefore given this study, it is essential to be attentive to the people who have the symptoms and contact history. Surprisingly, health care workers and travelers who apply health protocols strictly according to the rules have a low risk of COVID19 infection.

中文翻译：

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循证文化：印度尼西亚雅加达无症状发生期间的 COVID-19 阳性因素

摘要

2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 是一场全球性灾难，印度尼西亚确诊病例超过 746,312 例，尤其是雅加达，其中约 50% 为无症状确诊病例。本文旨在使用四种无症状包含情况来研究 COVID-19 诊断的持续因素。我们使用贝叶斯逻辑回归来识别 COVID-19 阳性的因素，这可以解决传统方法中的问题，例如过度拟合和不确定性。这项研究发现了三个主要发现：（1）COVID-19 可以感染任何年龄的人；(2) 在冠状病毒（COVID-19）的十二种症状中，五种症状增加了 COVID-19 的可能性，两种症状降低了感染 COVID-19 的可能性；(3) 从流行病学的角度来看，接触史增加了感染 COVID-19 的可能性，而医护人员和旅行过的人感染 COVID-19 的可能性较小。因此，鉴于这项研究，必须注意有症状和接触史的人。令人惊讶的是，严格按照规定执行卫生规程的医护人员和旅行者感染 COVID19 的风险较低。