The COVID-19 pandemic, worldwide up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political authorities, such as national lockdowns, have not prevented the outbreak of the new pandemic's waves. In this article, we propose an integrated detection-estimation-forecasting framework that, using publicly available data, is designed to: learn relevant features of the pandemic (e.g., the infection rate); detect as quickly as possible the onset (or the termination) of an exponential growth of the contagion; and reliably forecast the pandemic evolution. The proposed solution is validated by analyzing the COVID-19 second and third waves in the United States.

中文翻译：

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最快速地检测和预测流行病爆发：COVID-19 浪潮分析


截至 2020 年 12 月，COVID-19 大流行已在全球范围内造成超过 170 万人死亡，并使世界上最先进的医疗保健系统承受巨大压力。在许多国家，政治当局采取的严厉限制措施，例如全国封锁，并没有阻止新冠疫情的爆发。在本文中，我们提出了一个综合的检测-估计-预测框架，该框架使用公开数据，旨在： 了解大流行的相关特征（例如感染率）；尽快检测传染病指数增长的发生（或终止）；并可靠地预测大流行的演变。通过分析美国的 COVID-19 第二波和第三波疫情，验证了所提出的解决方案。