Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country,Global Change Biology

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Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-11 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15873
Stephanie Roe _{1,

2} , Charlotte Streck _{2,

3} , Robert Beach ₄ , Jonah Busch ₅ , Melissa Chapman ₆ , Vassilis Daioglou _{7,

8} , Andre Deppermann ₉ , Jonathan Doelman ₈ , Jeremy Emmet-Booth ₁₀ , Jens Engelmann ₁₁ , Oliver Fricko ₉ , Chad Frischmann ₁₂ , Jason Funk ₁₃ , Giacomo Grassi ₁₄ , Bronson Griscom ₅ , Petr Havlik ₉ , Steef Hanssen ₁₅ , Florian Humpenöder ₁₆ , David Landholm _{2,

16} , Guy Lomax ₁₇ , Johannes Lehmann ₁₈ , Leah Mesnildrey _{2,

19} , Gert-Jan Nabuurs _{20,

21} , Alexander Popp ₁₆ , Charlotte Rivard ₂₂ , Jonathan Sanderman ₂₂ , Brent Sohngen ₂₃ , Pete Smith ₂₄ , Elke Stehfest ₈ , Dominic Woolf ₁₈ , Deborah Lawrence ₁

Affiliation

Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA.
Climate Focus, Berlin, Germany.
International Politics, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
Environmental Engineering and Economics Division, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia, USA.
Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Project Drawdown, San Francisco, California, USA.
Land Use and Climate Knowledge Initiative, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy.
Department of Environmental Science, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Soil and Crop Science, School of Integrative Plant Science, College of Agriculture and Life Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.
Sciences Po Paris, Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA), Paris, France.
Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA.
Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing “bottom-up” sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO₂eq) land-based mitigation is 8–13.8 GtCO₂eq yr⁻¹ between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr⁻¹) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.

更新日期：2021-11-03

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