We examine the period of national lockdown beginning in March 2020 using an integrated epidemiological-econometric framework in which health and economic outcomes are jointly determined. We augment a state-level compartmental model with behavioral responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and to local epidemiological conditions. To calibrate the model, we construct daily, county-level measures of contact rates and employment and estimate key parameters with an event study design. We have three main findings: First, NPIs introduced by state and local governments explain a small fraction of the nationwide decline in contact rates but nevertheless reduced COVID-19 deaths by about 25 percent—saving about 39,000 lives—over the first three months of the pandemic. However, NPIs also explain nearly 15 percent of the decline in employment—around 3 million jobs—over the same period. Second, NPIs that target individual behavior (such as stay-at-home orders) were more effective at reducing transmission at lower economic cost than those that target businesses (shutdowns). Third, an aggressive and well-designed response in the early stages of the pandemic could have improved both epidemiological and economic outcomes over the medium term.

我们使用综合流行病学-计量经济学框架研究了从 2020 年 3 月开始的国家封锁时期，在该框架中，健康和经济结果是共同确定的。我们通过对非药物干预 (NPI) 和当地流行病学条件的行为反应来增强州级区室模型。为了校准模型，我们构建了每日、县级的接触率和就业量度，并通过事件研究设计估计了关键参数。我们有三个主要发现：首先，州和地方政府引入的非营利机构解释了全国范围内接触率下降的一小部分，但在疫情爆发的前三个月，COVID-19 的死亡人数减少了约 25%，挽救了约 39,000 人的生命。大流行。然而，非营利机构也解释了同期近 15% 的就业下降（约 300 万个工作岗位）。其次，针对个人行为（例如居家令）的非营利机构比针对企业（停业）的非营利机构以更低的经济成本更有效地减少传播。第三，在大流行的早期阶段采取积极和精心设计的应对措施，本可以在中期改善流行病学和经济结果。