Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or when infection spreads to susceptible sub-populations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socio-economic and urban/rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.

中文翻译：

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肯尼亚流行病浪潮背后的 COVID-19 传播动态


关于 COVID-19 干预措施的政策决策应以当地、区域和国家对 SARS-CoV-2 传播的了解为基础。当限制取消或遵守不力、具有新表型特性的变异体成功入侵或当感染传播到易感亚群时，可能会导致流行病浪潮。肯尼亚已观察到三波 COVID-19 疫情。使用机械数学模型，我们通过高社会经济群体和低社会经济群体接触率的差异来解释前两次不同的浪潮，并通过引入更高传播率的变体来解释第三次浪潮。重新开放学校导致第二波和第三波之间的传播略有增加。社会经济和城乡人口结构是肯尼亚病毒传播的关键决定因素。