Electric vehicles have a potential to lower greenhouse gas emissions but still face challenges. This study asks what can be learned from the US automobile history. In 1900, there were three equal contenders in the US automotive industry: gasoline, electric and steam cars. Only a decade later, the gasoline car had achieved a crushing dominance. This dominance is often attributed to techno-economic factors, such as an innate inferiority of electric cars. Meanwhile, the role of the infrastructures is not well understood. This study presents evidence on the mechanisms behind the rise of gasoline vehicles, using a database of more than 36,000 passenger car models. We estimated econometric models to explain the technology choice of car producers, which show that the slow expansion of electricity infrastructure had a key impact. We estimate that a 15 or 20 year earlier diffusion of electricity grids would have tipped the balance in favour of electric vehicles, most notably in metropolitan areas. In the context of the current climate crisis, the results support the notion that large-scale investment in infrastructure is critical to achieve sustainable socio-technological transitions.

电动汽车具有降低温室气体排放的潜力，但仍面临挑战。这项研究询问可以从美国汽车历史中学到什么。1900 年，美国汽车工业出现了三个平等的竞争者：汽油车、电动车和蒸汽车。仅仅十年后，汽油车就取得了压倒性的统治地位。这种主导地位通常归因于技术经济因素，例如电动汽车的先天劣势。同时，基础设施的作用还没有被很好地理解。本研究使用包含 36,000 多种乘用车型号的数据库，提供了有关汽油车崛起背后机制的证据。我们估计了解释汽车制造商技术选择的计量经济学模型，这表明电力基础设施的缓慢扩张产生了关键影响。我们估计，15 或 20 年前电网的普及将使天平向电动汽车倾斜，尤其是在大都市地区。在当前气候危机的背景下，结果支持这样一种观点，即大规模基础设施投资对于实现可持续的社会技术转型至关重要。