Species responses to climate change are often measured at broad spatiotemporal scales, which can miss the fine-scale changes that are most relevant to conservation and fisheries management. We develop a scaleable geostatistical approach to assess how juvenile and adult fish distributions have been shaped by changes in bottom temperature and dissolved oxygen over a recent decade of warming in the northeast Pacific. Across 38 demersal fishes, biomass trends were associated negatively with warming and positively with dissolved oxygen, but when trends in both biomass and climate were converted to velocities—the speed and direction a population would have to move to maintain consistent conditions—the effect of temperature change differed depending on local conditions. In the warmest locations, warming velocities were associated with negative biotic velocities for 19 of 69 species-maturity combinations, and yet were almost always associated with stable or positive biotic velocities in the coolest locations (64 of 69). These spatially consistent biomass declines (negative biotic velocities) in the warmest locations and increases in cooler locations suggest a redistribution of species with the potential for new ecological and fisheries interactions. After controlling for temperature, the more spatially consistent effects of dissolved oxygen were often negative, suggesting a mechanism other than hypoxia avoidance—potentially changes in primary production. Our approach identifies the species and locations that are most sensitive to observed changes in the environment at any scale, thus facilitating future vulnerability assessments.

中文翻译：

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对比温暖和凉爽地区的气候速度影响表明，在已经较暖的温带水域，海洋变暖的影响更为严重

物种对气候变化的响应通常在广泛的时空尺度上进行测量，这可能会错过与保护和渔业管理最相关的精细尺度变化。我们开发了一种可扩展的地质统计学方法，以评估在东北太平洋最近十年的变暖过程中，底部温度和溶解氧的变化如何影响了幼鱼和成鱼的分布。在 38 条底栖鱼类中，生物量趋势与变暖呈负相关，与溶解氧呈正相关，但是当生物量和气候的趋势都转换为速度时——种群必须移动的速度和方向以保持一致的条件——温度的影响变化因当地情况而异。在最温暖的地方，变暖速度与 69 个物种成熟度组合中的 19 个的负生物速度相关，但几乎总是与最冷地点的稳定或正生物速度相关（69 个中的 64 个）。这些空间一致的生物量在最温暖的地方下降（负生物速度）和在较冷的地方增加表明物种的重新分布具有新的生态和渔业相互作用的潜力。在控制温度后，溶解氧在空间上更一致的影响通常是负面的，这表明除了避免缺氧之外还有其他机制——初级生产的潜在变化。我们的方法确定对观察到的任何规模的环境变化最敏感的物种和位置，从而促进未来的脆弱性评估。