As both plant and animal species shift their ranges in response to a changing climate, maintaining connectivity between present habitat and suitable habitat in the future will become increasingly important to ensure lasting protection for biodiversity. Because the temporal period commensurate with planning for mid-century change is multi-generational for most species, connectivity designed to facilitate climate adaptation requires pathways with ‘stepping-stones’ between current and future habitat. These areas should have habitats suitable not only for dispersal, but for all aspects of species lifecycles. We integrated present-day land use, topographic diversity, and projections of shifting climate regimes into a single connectivity modeling approach to identify pathways for mid-century shifts in species ranges. Using Omniscape we identified climate linkages, or areas important for climate change-driven movement, as the areas with more current flow than would be expected in the absence of climate considerations. This approach identified connectivity potential between natural lands in the present climate and natural lands with future analogous climate following topo-climatically diverse routes. We then translated the model output into a strategic framework to improve interpretation and to facilitate a more direct connection with conservation action. Across modified landscapes, pathways important to climate-driven movement were highly coincident with the last remaining present-day linkages, reinforcing their importance. Across unfragmented lands, the presence of climate-adapted pathways helped inform the prioritization of conservation actions in areas where multiple connectivity options still exist. Many climate linkages follow major watercourses along elevational gradients, highlighting the importance of protecting or managing for these natural linear pathways that provide movement routes for climate adaptation. By integrating enduring landscape features with climate projections and present-day land uses, our approach reveals “no-regrets” pathways to plan for a connected landscape in an uncertain future.

中文翻译：

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应对气候变化的“无悔”路径：规划与土地利用、地形和气候的连通性


随着植物和动物物种为了应对气候变化而改变其活动范围，保持当前栖息地与未来合适栖息地之间的连通性对于确保生物多样性的持久保护将变得越来越重要。由于与本世纪中叶变化规划相称的时间段对于大多数物种来说是多代的，因此旨在促进气候适应的连通性需要在当前和未来栖息地之间建立“垫脚石”路径。这些地区的栖息地不仅适合扩散，而且适合物种生命周期的各个方面。我们将当今的土地利用、地形多样性和气候变化的预测整合到一个单一的连通性建模方法中，以确定本世纪中叶物种范围变化的路径。使用 Omniscape，我们确定了气候联系或对气候变化驱动的运动重要的区域，因为这些区域的电流流量比不考虑气候因素时的预期要多。这种方法确定了当前气候下的自然土地与遵循地形气候多样化路线的未来类似气候的自然土地之间的连通潜力。然后，我们将模型输出转化为战略框架，以改进解释并促进与保护行动更直接的联系。在经过改变的景观中，对气候驱动的运动很重要的路径与当今仅存的联系高度一致，这增强了它们的重要性。在未破碎的土地上，适应气候的道路的存在有助于在仍然存在多种连通性选择的地区确定保护行动的优先顺序。 许多气候联系沿着海拔梯度沿着主要水道延伸，凸显了保护或管理这些为气候适应提供移动路线的自然线性路径的重要性。通过将持久的景观特征与气候预测和当今的土地利用相结合，我们的方法揭示了在不确定的未来规划互联景观的“无悔”途径。