In the course of the twentieth century, social scientists and policy analysts have produced a large volume of literature on whether policies boost fertility. This paper describes the results of a systematic review of the literature on the effects of policy on fertility since 1970 in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Australia. Empirical studies were selected through extensive systematic searches, including studies using an experimental or quasi-experimental design. Thirty-five studies were included, covering reforms of parental leave, childcare, health services, and universal child transfers. In line with previous reviews, we find that childcare expansions increase completed fertility, while increased cash transfers have temporary effects. New evidence on parental leave expansions, particularly from Central Europe, suggests larger effects than previously established. High-earning couples benefit more from parental leave expansions, while expanding childcare programs can reduce social inequalities on other domains. Subsidizing assisted reproductive treatments shows some promise of increasing birth rates for women over the age of 35. Countries that to date have limited support for families can build on solid evidence if they choose to expand these programs.

中文翻译：

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政策可以阻止生育率下降吗？（准）实验文献的系统评价

在 20 世纪的进程中，社会科学家和政策分析家就政策是否会提高生育率发表了大量文献。本文描述了对自 1970 年以来欧洲、美国、加拿大和澳大利亚政策对生育率影响的文献进行系统回顾的结果。通过广泛的系统搜索选择了实证研究，包括使用实验或准实验设计的研究。纳入了 35 项研究，涵盖育儿假、儿童保育、医疗服务和普遍儿童转移的改革。与之前的评论一致，我们发现托儿服务的扩张提高了完成生育率，而增加的现金转移有暂时的影响。关于育儿假扩大的新证据，特别是来自中欧，表明比以前确定的影响更大。高收入夫妇从扩大育儿假中受益更多，而扩大育儿计划可以减少其他领域的社会不平等。补贴辅助生殖治疗显示出提高 35 岁以上妇女出生率的一些希望。迄今为止，对家庭支持有限的国家如果选择扩大这些计划，则可以建立确凿的证据。