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Understanding the Improbable: A Survey of Fat Tails in Environmental Economics
Annual Review of Resource Economics ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-05 , DOI: 10.1146/annurev-resource-102020-094143
Marc N. Conte 1 , David L. Kelly 2
Affiliation  

We survey the growing literature on fat-tailed distributions in environmental economics. We then examine the theoretical and statistical properties of such distributions, focusing especially on when these properties are likely to arise in environmental problems. We find that a number of variables are fat tailed in environmental economics, including the climate sensitivity, natural disaster impacts, spread of infectious diseases, and stated willingness to pay. We argue that different fat-tailed distributions arise from common pathways. Finally, we review the literature on the policy implications of fat-tailed distributions and controversies over their interpretation. We conclude that the literature has made great strides in demonstrating when fat tails matter for optimal environmental policy. Yet, much is less well understood, including how alternative policies affect fat-tailed distributions, the optimal policy in a computational economy with many fat-tailed problems, and how to account for imprecision in empirical tests for fat tails.

中文翻译:


了解不可能:环境经济学中的肥尾调查

我们调查了越来越多的关于环境经济学中肥尾分布的文献。然后我们检查这些分布的理论和统计特性,特别关注这些特性何时可能出现在环境问题中。我们发现许多变量在环境经济学中是肥尾的,包括气候敏感性、自然灾害影响、传染病的传播和明确的支付意愿。我们认为不同的肥尾分布来自共同的途径。最后,我们回顾了有关肥尾分布的政策含义和对其解释的争议的文献。我们得出的结论是,文献在证明肥尾何时对最佳环境政策很重要方面取得了很大进展。然而,很多人不太了解,

更新日期:2021-10-06
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