This article examines global trends likely to influence forests and tree-based systems and considers the poverty implications of these interactions. The trends, identified through a series of expert discussions and review of the literature, include: (i) climatic impacts mediated through changes in forests, (ii) growth in commodity markets, (iii) shifts in private and public forest sector financing, (iv) technological advances and rising interconnectivity, (v) global socio-political movements, and (vi) emerging infectious diseases. These trends bring opportunities and risks to the forest-reliant poor. A review of available evidence suggests that in a business-as-usual scenario, the cumulative risks posed by these global forces, in conjunction with limited rights, resources, and skills required to prosper from global changes, are likely to place poor and transient poor households under additional stress. The article concludes with an assessment of how interventions for enhancing forest management, combined with supportive policy and institutional conditions, can contribute to a different and more prosperous future for forests and people.

本文研究了可能影响森林和树木系统的全球趋势，并考虑了这些相互作用对贫困的影响。通过一系列专家讨论和文献审查确定的趋势包括：(i) 通过森林变化介导的气候影响，(ii) 商品市场的增长，(iii) 私人和公共森林部门融资的转变，( iv) 技术进步和日益增强的互连性，(v) 全球社会政治运动，以及 (vi) 新出现的传染病。这些趋势给依赖森林的穷人带来了机遇和风险。对现有证据的审查表明，在一切照旧的情况下，这些全球力量带来的累积风险，再加上从全球变化中繁荣发展所需的有限权利、资源和技能，可能使贫困和临时贫困家庭承受额外的压力。文章最后评估了加强森林管理的干预措施，结合支持性政策和制度条件，如何能够为森林和人类创造一个不同的、更加繁荣的未来。