Understanding the influence of thermal trends, crop management practices, and genetics on the crop developmental stages and phases is critical to develop adaptation strategies in the face of warming trends. The specific study objectives were to determine the correlation between observed potato phenology with the trends of rising temperature, and to investigate the impacts of thermal trend, crop management practices, and changes in cultivars using a modeling approach. The study was conducted at 12 sites in Punjab, Pakistan from 1980 to 2018 using phenological observations for both the spring and autumn potato crop. For the stages observed during spring, there was an average advance of 6.2 days decade⁻¹ for sowing, 6.0 for emergence, 3.8 for tuber initiation, and 2.0 for maturity. However, for the stages observed during autumn, there was an average delay of 5.2 days decade⁻¹ for sowing, 5.1 for emergence, 3.3 for tuber initiation, and 2.3 for maturity. The average phase duration decreased on average by 2.4 days decade⁻¹ for sowing to tuber initiation, 1.8 days decade⁻¹ for tuber initiation to maturity for spring, and 4.2 days decade⁻¹ for sowing to maturity. The average autumn phase duration decreased on average by 1.9 days decade⁻¹ for sowing to tuber initiation, 1.0 days decade⁻¹ for tuber initiation to maturity, and 2.9 days decade⁻¹ for sowing to maturity. With respect to the local weather observation, the average air temperature had increased 0.8 °C decade⁻¹ for spring and autumn from 1980 to 2018. The differences in spring and autumn phenology had a statistically significant negative correlation with the increase in temperature from 1980 to 2018. When the CSM-SUBSTOR-Potato model was used for a standard variety across locations and years, the predicted phenological stages, on average, occurred earlier due to increase in temperature from 1980 to 2018, while there was less impact on the observed phenological stages. This indicated that during the last four decade, adaptation strategies such as earlier planting for spring potato, and later planting for autumn, as well as the release of new cultivars that require more thermal time compared to the traditional cultivars have been implemented by growers have compensated for some part of temperature induced warming trends of spring and autumn potato phenology.

了解热趋势、作物管理实践和遗传学对作物发育阶段和阶段的影响对于制定应对气候变暖趋势的适应策略至关重要。具体研究目标是确定观察到的马铃薯物候与温度上升趋势之间的相关性，并使用建模方法研究热趋势、作物管理实践和品种变化的影响。该研究于 1980 年至 2018 年在巴基斯坦旁遮普邦的 12 个地点进行，使用了春季和秋季马铃薯作物的物候观测。对于春季观察到的阶段，平均提前 6.2 天十年^-1播种，出苗 6.0，块茎萌发 3.8，成熟 2.0。然而，对于秋季观察到的各个阶段，播种平均延迟 5.2 天^-1天，出苗延迟 5.1 天，块茎启动延迟3.3天，成熟延迟2.3 天。平均阶段持续时间从播种到块茎开始平均减少 2.4 天十年^-1，对于春季块茎开始到成熟平均减少1.8 天十年^-1，并且对于播种到成熟减少4.2 天十年^-1。平均秋季期持续时间从播种到块茎开始平均减少 1.9 天十年^-1，从块茎开始到成熟平均减少1.0 天十年^-1和 2.9 天十年^-1播种至成熟。就当地天气观测而言，平均气温增加了 0.8 °C 十年^-11980-2018 年春秋两季。春秋物候差异与 1980-2018 年气温升高呈显着负相关。当标准品种跨地域、跨年份采用 CSM-SUBSTOR-Potato 模型时，平均而言，由于 1980 年至 2018 年温度升高，预测的物候阶段发生得更早，而对观察到的物候阶段的影响较小。这表明，在过去的 40 年中，采取了春马早种、秋种晚种等适应策略，