As the world population is getting older, care for elderly and procurement to their special needs gains importance for both national and local governments. Therefore, distribution of elderly population and their (residential) mobility behaviours gains importance to improve policies coupled in this respect. However, although demographic processes can easily be monitored and projected over time for a country, estimating distribution of certain population cohorts over space (elderly population in our case) entails difficulties. Indeed, elderly population does not show a uniform distribution in space. This study investigates spatial variation and dynamics of elderly population in Turkey, where elderly population is percolating unevenly in space. We devise two complementary ANCOVA models and a structural equations model, which suggest a disproportionate and growing share of elderly in small, inner and coastal areas, especially sun-belt coastal districts. We conclude the study with prospective policies for elderly for central and local governments. Our findings suggest inclusive and attentive policies geared to spatial reflections of demographic processes. In particular, we favour policies focused on improved services for the elderly and spatial planning considering special populations groups, one of which is elderly population.

中文翻译：

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土耳其老年人口空间变化及其动态

随着世界人口的老龄化，对老年人的照顾和为他们的特殊需求进行采购对于国家和地方政府来说都变得越来越重要。因此，老年人口分布及其（居住）流动行为对于改进这方面的政策具有重要意义。然而，尽管随着时间的推移可以很容易地监测和预测一个国家的人口过程，但估计某些人口群体在空间上的分布（在我们的例子中是老年人口）会带来困难。事实上，老年人口在空间上并没有呈现出均匀的分布。本研究调查了土耳其老年人口的空间变化和动态，其中老年人口在空间中的渗透不均匀。我们设计了两个互补的 ANCOVA 模型和一个结构方程模型，这表明在小型、内陆和沿海地区，尤其是阳光地带的沿海地区，老年人的比例不成比例且不断增长。我们以中央和地方政府对老年人的前瞻性政策来结束这项研究。我们的研究结果表明，针对人口过程的空间反映的包容性和周到的政策。特别是，我们支持以改善老年人服务和考虑特殊人群的空间规划为重点的政策，老年人口就是其中之一。