We apply a Bayesian Panel VAR (BPVAR) and DSGE approach to study the regional effects of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. We disentangle the persistent fall in electricity supply following the Fukushima accident, from the immediate but more temporary production shock attributable to the natural disaster. Specifically, we estimate the contribution of the electricity fall on the regions economic recovery. First, we estimate a BPVAR with regional-level data on industrial production, prices, and trade, to obtain impulse responses of the natural disaster shock. We find that all regions experienced a strong and persistent decline in trade, and long-lasting disruptions on production. Inflationary pressures were strong but short-lived. Second, we present a DSGE model that can capture key observations from this empirical model, and provide theoretical impulse response functions that distinguish the immediate production shock, from the persistent electricity supply shock. Thirdly, in line with the predictions from the theoretical model, counterfactual analysis via conditional forecasts based on our BPVAR reveals that the Japanese regional economies, particularly the hit regions, did experience a loss in production and trade due to the persistent fall in electricity supply.

我们应用贝叶斯面板 VAR (BPVAR) 和 DSGE 方法来研究 2011 年东日本大地震的区域影响。我们将福岛事故后电力供应的持续下降与自然灾害造成的直接但更暂时的生产冲击分开。具体来说，我们估计电力下降对地区经济复苏的贡献。首先，我们使用区域级工业生产、价格和贸易数据估计 BPVAR，以获得自然灾害冲击的脉冲响应。我们发现所有地区的贸易都出现了强劲而持续的下降，以及生产的长期中断。通胀压力强劲，但持续时间很短。其次，我们提出了一个 DSGE 模型，可以从这个经验模型中捕获关键观察结果，并提供理论脉冲响应函数，将直接的生产冲击与持续的电力供应冲击区分开来。第三，与理论模型的预测一致，基于我们的 BPVAR 的条件预测反事实分析表明，由于电力供应持续下降，日本区域经济，特别是受灾地区确实经历了生产和贸易的损失。