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Predicting Risk of Reoffending in Persons with Child Sexual Exploitation Material Offense Histories: The Use of Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool in a Scottish Population
Sexual Abuse ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-02 , DOI: 10.1177/10790632211047190
Valérie Savoie 1 , Ethel Quayle 2 , Elizabeth Flynn 1, 3 , Suzanne O'Rourke 2, 4
Affiliation  

In the past decade, there has been an increase in child sexual exploitation material (CSEM) offenses and convictions. Although research shows that individuals with CSEM offence histories generally are at low risk of reoffending, certain factors do increase in CSEM convictions, in order to assist with case prioritization, management and supervision, risk assessment is helpful across agencies. The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) was created specifically for this population and shows significant predictive validity for various outcomes. This study aimed to validate the use of the CPORT in a Scottish sample of 141 adult males who were convicted of CSEM offenses. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression analyses indicated that the CPORT significantly predicted any recidivism (Area Under the Curve = .81), any sexual recidivism (AUC = .78) and CSEM recidivism (AUC = .74), suggesting that it is a valid risk assessment tool for Scottish populations. Recommendations for further research and clinical implications are discussed.



中文翻译:

预测有儿童性剥削物质犯罪历史的人再次犯罪的风险:在苏格兰人群中使用儿童色情犯罪者风险工具

在过去十年中,儿童性剥削材料 (CSEM) 犯罪和定罪有所增加。尽管研究表明,有 CSEM 犯罪历史的个人再次犯罪的风险通常较低,但某些因素确实会增加 CSEM 的定罪,为了协助案件的优先级排序、管理和监督,风险评估有助于跨机构。儿童色情犯罪者风险工具 (CPORT) 是专门为这一人群创建的,并显示出对各种结果的显着预测有效性。本研究旨在验证 CPORT 在苏格兰样本中的使用,该样本包含 141 名被判犯有 CSEM 罪行的成年男性。接收者操作特征 (ROC) 和逻辑回归分析表明,CPORT 显着预测任何累犯(曲线下面积 = .81),任何性累犯 (AUC = .78) 和 CSEM 累犯 (AUC = .74),表明它是苏格兰人群的有效风险评估工具。讨论了进一步研究和临床意义的建议。

更新日期:2021-10-02
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