The public forest policy's response to the threat of deforestation in Mexico has relied on different environmental tools for forest management, conservation, and survival. The present study compares the updated version of the Index of Economic Pressure for Deforestation (IRDef, in Spanish), one of the most commonly used public policy tools, to an alternative version this index incorporating a modification of the measurement of accessibility (MIRDef, in Spanish). It also evaluates the accuracy of the deforestation risk estimates obtained with both the IRDef and the MIRDef by comparing them to actual deforestation that occurred, based on open data on forests and tropical forests in Mexico (obtained from Global Forest Watch). Logistic regressions and geographic information systems were used to model both indices. The modified index (MIRDef) was more sensitive to actual deforestation than the updated version of the index (IRDef), although neither of the indices' expected distributions of high and very high risk categories, agreed with the actual deforestation that occurred. The results of this analysis provide information that contributes to the important discussion about the drivers and deterrents of deforestation in Mexico along with strategies to strengthen the federal public policy tool.

公共森林政策对墨西哥森林砍伐威胁的反应依赖于不同的森林管理、保护和生存环境工具。本研究将更新版的毁林经济压力指数（IRDef，西班牙语），这是最常用的公共政策工具之一，与该指数的替代版本（MIRDef，在西班牙语）。它还根据墨西哥森林和热带森林的开放数据（从全球森林观察中获得），通过将它们与实际发生的森林砍伐进行比较来评估使用 IRDef 和 MIRDef 获得的森林砍伐风险估计的准确性。逻辑回归和地理信息系统被用来对这两个指数进行建模。修改后的指数 (MIRDef) 比指数的更新版本 (IRDef) 对实际森林砍伐更为敏感，尽管这两个指数的高风险和极高风险类别的预期分布均与实际发生的森林砍伐不一致。该分析的结果提供的信息有助于关于墨西哥森林砍伐的驱动因素和威慑因素以及加强联邦公共政策工具的战略的重要讨论。