Tropical cyclone (TC) impacts are expected to worsen under continued global warming and socio-economic development. Here we combine TC simulations with an impact model to quantify country-level population exposure to TC winds for different magnitudes of global mean surface temperature increase and future population distributions. We estimate an annual global TC exposure increase of 26% (33 million people) for a 1 °C increase in global mean surface temperature, assuming present-day population. The timing of warming matters when additionally accounting for population change, with global population projected to peak around mid-century and decline thereafter. A middle-of-the-road socio-economic scenario combined with 2 °C of warming around 2050 increases exposure by 41% (52 million). A stronger mitigation scenario reaching 2 °C around 2100 limits this increase to 20% (25 million). Rapid climate action therefore avoids interference with peak global population timing and limits climate-change-driven exposure. Cumulatively, over 1.8 billion people could be saved by 2100.

在持续的全球变暖和社会经济发展的情况下，热带气旋 (TC) 的影响预计会恶化。在这里，我们将 TC 模拟与影响模型相结合，以量化不同幅度的全球平均地表温度升高和未来人口分布的国家级人口暴露于 TC 风的情况。假设现在的人口，我们估计全球平均地表温度每升高 1°C，全球 TC 暴露量每年将增加 26%（3300 万人）。在另外考虑到人口变化时，变暖的时机很重要，预计全球人口将在本世纪中叶左右达到顶峰，然后下降。中等社会经济情景加上 2050 年左右升温 2°C 会使暴露量增加 41%（5200 万）。更强的缓解情景在 2100 年左右达到 2°C，将这一增幅限制在 20%（2500 万）。因此，快速的气候行动避免了对全球人口高峰时间的干扰，并限制了气候变化驱动的暴露。到 2100 年，累计可拯救超过 18 亿人。