Effects of confinement and vaccination on an epidemic outburst: A statistical mechanics approach,Physical Review E

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Effects of confinement and vaccination on an epidemic outburst: A statistical mechanics approach
Physical Review E ( IF 2.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-28 , DOI: 10.1103/physreve.104.034310
Óscar Toledano ₁ , Begoña Mula ₂ , Silvia N Santalla ₃ , Javier Rodríguez-Laguna ₂ , Óscar Gálvez ₁

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This work describes a simple agent model for the spread of an epidemic outburst, with special emphasis on mobility and geographical considerations, which we characterize via statistical mechanics and numerical simulations. As the mobility is decreased, a percolation phase transition is found separating a free-propagation phase in which the outburst spreads without finding spatial barriers and a localized phase in which the outburst dies off. Interestingly, the number of infected agents is subject to maximal fluctuations at the transition point, building upon the unpredictability of the evolution of an epidemic outburst. Our model also lends itself to testing vaccination schedules. Indeed, it has been suggested that if a vaccine is available but scarce it is convenient to carefully select the vaccination program to maximize the chances of halting the outburst. We discuss and evaluate several schemes, with special interest on how the percolation transition point can be shifted, allowing for higher mobility without epidemiological impact.

中文翻译：

隔离和疫苗接种对流行病爆发的影响：统计力学方法

这项工作描述了一个用于流行病爆发传播的简单代理模型，特别强调了流动性和地理因素，我们通过统计力学和数值模拟对其进行了表征。随着迁移率的降低，发现渗透相变将爆发扩散而没有发现空间障碍的自由传播阶段和爆发消失的局部阶段分开。有趣的是，受感染病原体的数量在过渡点受到最大波动的影响，建立在流行病爆发演变的不可预测性之上。我们的模型也适用于测试疫苗接种计划。的确，有人建议，如果疫苗可用但稀缺，仔细选择疫苗接种计划以最大限度地阻止爆发的机会是方便的。我们讨论和评估了几种方案，特别关注如何改变渗透过渡点，从而在没有流行病学影响的情况下实现更高的流动性。

更新日期：2021-09-28

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