Adolescents who anticipate a shorter lifespan are more likely to engage in reckless behavior, but few studies consider whether an adolescent’s estimated life expectancy (ELE) demonstrates change across development. This study examined whether ELE changes over time, and if these changes are associated with within-person changes in delinquency in 1147 males who had been arrested for the first time. An accelerated cohort design provided data for youth aged 14–21. Estimated life expectancy showed linear change, suggesting that adolescents grow more optimistic about their life expectancy as they age. Within person, increases in ELE were associated with decreased offending, a pattern consistent across development. These findings support the utility of ELE as a target for intervention in reducing adolescent crime.

预期寿命较短的青少年更有可能做出鲁莽行为，但很少有研究考虑青少年的估计寿命 (ELE) 是否会随着发展而发生变化。这项研究检查了 ELE 是否随时间发生变化，以及这些变化是否与 1147 名首次被捕的男性的犯罪率变化有关。加速队列设计为 14-21 岁的青年提供了数据。预期寿命呈线性变化，表明青少年随着年龄增长对预期寿命越来越乐观。在人体内，ELE 的增加与犯罪减少有关，这种模式在整个发展过程中都是一致的。这些发现支持将 ELE 作为干预减少青少年犯罪的目标的效用。