This article analyzes the specific and critical role of trust in scientists on both the support for and compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We exploit large-scale, longitudinal, and representative surveys for 12 countries over the period from March to December 2020, and we complement the analysis with experimental data. We find that trust in scientists is the key driving force behind individual support for and compliance with NPIs and for favorable attitudes toward vaccination. The effect of trust in government is more ambiguous and tends to diminish support for and compliance with NPIs in countries where the recommendations from scientists and the government were not aligned. Trust in others also has seemingly paradoxical effects: in countries where social trust is high, the support for NPIs is low due to higher expectations that others will voluntary social distance. Our individual-level longitudinal data also allows us to evaluate the effects of within-person changes in trust over the pandemic: we show that trust levels and, in particular, trust in scientists have changed dramatically for individuals and within countries, with important subsequent effects on compliant behavior and support for NPIs. Such findings point out the challenging but critical need to maintain trust in scientists during a lasting pandemic that strains citizens and governments.

本文分析了在 COVID-19 大流行期间，科学家的信任对于支持和遵守非药物干预措施 (NPI) 的具体和关键作用。我们在 2020 年 3 月至 12 月期间对 12 个国家进行了大规模、纵向和代表性的调查，并用实验数据补充了分析。我们发现，对科学家的信任是个人支持和遵守 NPI 以及对疫苗接种持积极态度的关键驱动力。在科学家和政府建议不一致的国家，对政府信任的影响更加模糊，并且往往会减少对非营利机构的支持和遵守。对他人的信任也会产生看似矛盾的影响：在社会信任度较高的国家，对非营利机构的支持较低，因为人们对其他人自愿保持社交距离的期望较高。我们的个人层面的纵向数据还使我们能够评估大流行期间个人内部信任变化的影响：我们表明，个人和国家内部的信任水平，特别是对科学家的信任发生了巨大变化，产生了重要的后续影响关于合规行为和对 NPI 的支持。这些发现指出，在一场给公民和政府带来压力的持久大流行期间，保持对科学家的信任是一项具有挑战性但又至关重要的必要性。