In 2000, Robert Putnam forecast that United States (US) democracy was at risk from the twin challenges of declining civic engagement and rising interpersonal inequality. Sixteen years later, his predictions were vindicated by the election of Donald Trump as president of the US. This paper analyses the extent to which the 2016 election of Donald Trump—and his failed re-election bid in 2020—have been related to levels of social capital and interpersonal inequalities. We posit an alternative: that the rise in votes for Trump has been the result of long-term economic and population decline in areas with strong social capital. This hypothesis is confirmed by the econometric analysis conducted for US counties. Long-term declines in employment and population—rather than in earnings, salaries, or wages—in places with relatively strong social capital propelled Donald Trump to the presidency and almost secured his re-election. By contrast, low social capital and high interpersonal inequality were not connected to a surge in support for Trump. These results are robust to the introduction of control variables and different inequality measures. The analysis also shows that the discontent at the base of the Trump margin is not just a consequence of the 2008 crisis but had been brewing for a long time. Places in the US that remained cohesive but witnessed an enduring decline are no longer bowling alone, they have golfed with Trump and will, in all likelihood, continue to golf with Trumpism or other forms of populism.

中文翻译：

---

与特朗普打高尔夫球。社会资本、衰落、不平等和美国民粹主义的兴起

2000 年，罗伯特·普特南 (Robert Putnam) 预测，美国 (US) 民主正面临公民参与下降和人际不平等加剧的双重挑战的风险。Sixteen years later, his predictions were vindicated by the election of Donald Trump as president of the US. 本文分析了 2016 年唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 的选举——以及他在 2020 年竞选连任失败——与社会资本水平和人际不平等的关系。我们假设了另一种选择：特朗普的选票上升是社会资本雄厚的地区长期经济和人口下降的结果。对美国各县进行的计量经济分析证实了这一假设。就业和人口的长期下降——而不是收入、薪水、或工资——在社会资本相对雄厚的地方，唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)登上了总统宝座，几乎确保了他的连任。相比之下，低社会资本和高人际不平等与特朗普的支持率激增无关。这些结果对于引入控制变量和不同的不平等措施是稳健的。分析还表明，特朗普领先的不满情绪不仅是 2008 年危机的结果，而且已经酝酿了很长时间。美国那些保持凝聚力但持续衰退的地方不再单独打保龄球，他们与特朗普一起打高尔夫球，而且很可能会继续与特朗普主义或其他形式的民粹主义打高尔夫球。低社会资本和高人际不平等与特朗普的支持率激增无关。这些结果对于引入控制变量和不同的不平等措施是稳健的。分析还表明，特朗普领先的不满情绪不仅是 2008 年危机的结果，而且已经酝酿了很长时间。美国那些保持凝聚力但持续衰退的地方不再单独打保龄球，他们与特朗普一起打高尔夫球，而且很可能会继续与特朗普主义或其他形式的民粹主义打高尔夫球。低社会资本和高人际不平等与特朗普的支持率激增无关。这些结果对于引入控制变量和不同的不平等措施是稳健的。分析还表明，特朗普领先的不满情绪不仅是 2008 年危机的结果，而且已经酝酿了很长时间。美国那些保持凝聚力但持续衰退的地方不再单独打保龄球，他们与特朗普一起打高尔夫球，而且很可能会继续与特朗普主义或其他形式的民粹主义打高尔夫球。分析还表明，特朗普领先的不满情绪不仅是 2008 年危机的结果，而且已经酝酿了很长时间。美国那些保持凝聚力但持续衰退的地方不再单独打保龄球，他们与特朗普一起打高尔夫球，而且很可能会继续与特朗普主义或其他形式的民粹主义打高尔夫球。分析还表明，特朗普领先的不满情绪不仅是 2008 年危机的结果，而且已经酝酿了很长时间。美国那些保持凝聚力但持续衰退的地方不再单独打保龄球，他们与特朗普一起打高尔夫球，而且很可能会继续与特朗普主义或其他形式的民粹主义打高尔夫球。