In two studies, we investigate whether the link between entrepreneurial self-efficacy and entrepreneurial intentions depends on outcome expectations. In Study 1, we exploit the COVID-19-induced lockdown as a natural experiment in a two-wave student sample. We compare the efficacy–intention link in survey responses submitted right before and right after the lockdown. In Study 2, we conceptually replicate and extend the findings via an online vignette experiment. Together, these studies show that a disruption of stable institutionalized outcome expectations implying increasing risk and uncertainty makes self-efficacy a weaker predictor of entrepreneurial intentions, particularly among those with pessimistic perceptions.

在两项研究中，我们调查了创业自我效能感和创业意图之间的联系是否取决于结果预期。在研究 1 中，我们利用 COVID-19 引起的锁定作为两波学生样本中的自然实验。我们比较了锁定前后提交的调查回复中的功效-意图链接。在研究 2 中，我们通过在线插图实验从概念上复制和扩展了研究结果。总之，这些研究表明，稳定的制度化结果预期的破坏意味着风险和不确定性的增加，使自我效能成为创业意图的较弱预测因子，尤其是在那些持悲观看法的人中。