Local public managers are mobile in their career trajectories. While the extant public administration literature has predominantly examined this topic from a leadership turnover perspective, few studies have approached the career trajectories of local managers from a holistic, system-level angle. This article draws upon the vacancy chain literature and frames local managers’ interconnected career trajectories within a nationwide professional job market, which we term “leadership turnover chains.” We examine factors influencing the formation of such leadership turnover chains among cities. With a dataset containing information from the resumes of 517 US local managers across 28 years, we employ panel dyadic logistic regressions to analyze the leadership turnover chains among cities. Our findings suggest that managers are more likely to move among dyads of cities that are geographically close and with similar levels of economic prosperity, population size, racial diversity, and political climate. A promotion intercity turnover tends to take place from a populous city to a less populous city, while a demotion intercity turnover exhibits an opposite pattern. This study contributes to the theory of leadership turnover of local managers, highlighting a macro vacancy chain perspective on their career trajectories.

中文翻译：

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地方经理职业发展的空缺链模型

地方公共管理者的职业轨迹是流动的。虽然现有的公共行政文献主要从领导层更替的角度研究了这一主题，但很少有研究从整体、系统层面的角度研究地方经理的职业轨迹。本文借鉴了空缺链文献，并在全国专业就业市场中构建了本地经理相互关联的职业轨迹，我们称之为“领导周转链”。我们研究了影响城市间这种领导更替链形成的因素。使用包含 28 年 517 位美国本地经理的简历信息的数据集，我们采用面板二元逻辑回归分析城市之间的领导层更替链。我们的研究结果表明，管理者更有可能在地理位置相近、经济繁荣程度、人口规模、种族多样性和政治气候相似的城市之间流动。从人口稠密的城市到人口较少的城市，升迁的城际周转往往发生，而降级的城际周转则呈现相反的模式。本研究为地方经理的领导更替理论做出了贡献，强调了他们职业轨迹的宏观空缺链观点。