The US produce industry faces intensifying competition from imports, particularly those from Mexico, the largest exporter of produce to the United States. Fresh produce imports from Mexico have grown dramatically in recent years. This study examines the impact of increasing fresh tomato imports from Mexico on market price and revenue of US growers. Results show that tomato prices are highly sensitive to supply, suggesting a saturated market. Imports from Mexico have significant negative impacts on the prices of US domestic tomatoes. A scenario of 50% increase in tomato imports from Mexico could result in a $252 million (27%) revenue loss for American growers, thus posing great challenges to the sustainability of the declining US tomato industry.

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贸易如何影响美国农产品行业：以新鲜番茄为例

美国农产品行业面临来自进口的激烈竞争，尤其是来自墨西哥的进口竞争，墨西哥是美国最大的农产品出口国。近年来，从墨西哥进口的新鲜农产品大幅增长。本研究考察了增加从墨西哥进口的新鲜番茄对美国种植者的市场价格和收入的影响。结果表明，番茄价格对供应高度敏感，表明市场已经饱和。从墨西哥进口的西红柿对美国国内西红柿的价格有显着的负面影响。从墨西哥进口的番茄增加 50% 的情景可能导致美国种植者损失 2.52 亿美元（27%）的收入，从而对衰退的美国番茄产业的可持续性构成巨大挑战。