Purpose

The recent COVID-19 has obliged governments to enact large-scale policies to contain it. A topic of economic debate is the quantification of the impact that these policies can create in the economy, with the aim of activating regulatory mechanisms to minimize this impact. In this vein, this study aims to propose a quantification of the effects of the Italian government policy that blocks nonessential production activities.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use a multisectoral extended inoperability model on the social accounting matrix of Italy. The analysis identifies the pandemic’s impact on outputs, endogenous demands, value-added and disposable incomes of institutional sectors.

Findings

The construction and real estate sectors revealed a significant contraction followed by the retail trade and hotel and catering services sectors. The output contraction further impacts the value-added generation, disposable income and final demand components.

Originality/value

The current pandemic is alleged to have a greater impact than the epidemics of the past century, considering the present dimension of the world economy and the increasing interconnections between industries and institutions. In this scenario, it is challenging to safeguard not only human health and life but also the economy. Hence, there is a need to establish a trade-off between health and economics; and in this regard, the current study empirically quantifies the impact of health measures on the economy. The findings of this study help identify the sectors that are more prone to disaster effects and also present the structure of income circular flow in the Italian economy.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 和健康与经济之间的权衡：意大利的扩展不可操作性模型

目的

最近的 COVID-19 迫使各国政府制定大规模政策来遏制它。经济辩论的一个主题是量化这些政策可能对经济产生的影响，目的是激活监管机制以最大限度地减少这种影响。本着这种精神，本研究旨在对意大利政府阻止非必要生产活动的政策的影响进行量化。

设计/方法/途径

作者对意大利的社会核算矩阵使用了多部门扩展不可操作性模型。该分析确定了大流行病对机构部门的产出、内生需求、增值和可支配收入的影响。

发现

建筑业和房地产业显着收缩，其次是零售业和酒店及餐饮服务业。产出收缩进一步影响附加值的产生、可支配收入和最终需求组成部分。

原创性/价值

考虑到世界经济的当前规模以及行业和机构之间日益紧密的联系，据称当前的流行病比上个世纪的流行病具有更大的影响。在这种情况下，不仅要维护人类健康和生命，还要维护经济。因此，需要在健康和经济之间做出权衡；在这方面，当前的研究根据经验量化了卫生措施对经济的影响。这项研究的结果有助于确定更容易受到灾难影响的部门，并展示意大利经济中收入循环流动的结构。