How do financial markets react to populist electoral success? Theoretically, the effect can go in one of two directions. In the first instance, populists tend to espouse resolutely anti-finance ideas, and thus a populist wave would be expected to be bad for financial returns across the board. On the other hand, populists also tend to enact various stimulus and redistributive schemes, and these policies could also give a boost to financial markets. Additionally, in the long-term, if populists become entrenched, they take over the commanding heights, meaning a need for functioning financial markets in order to provide capital for the elites. Utilizing new advances in the measurement of populism, this paper amasses a database of populist advances across developed economies since 2008 and arrays them against equity market performance. Using EGARCH-M volatility modelling on pooled data and event studies on specific episodes of populist success, this analysis reveals that a) populism's effect in the short run is mainly through volatility channels and b) populism's longer-term effects are highly dependent on the specific brand of populism and the country context in which populism operates.

金融市场如何对民粹主义选举的成功做出反应？从理论上讲，效果可以在两个方向之一。首先，民粹主义者倾向于坚决支持反金融思想，因此预计民粹主义浪潮对全面的财务回报不利。另一方面，民粹主义者也倾向于制定各种刺激和再分配计划，这些政策也可能会提振金融市场。此外，从长远来看，如果民粹主义者站稳脚跟，他们就会占据制高点，这意味着需要金融市场运作才能为精英提供资金。本文利用民粹主义衡量方面的新进展，积累了自 2008 年以来发达经济体民粹主义进步的数据库，并将其与股市表现进行了对比。