This research offers an easy-to-implement forecast combination procedure to deal with issues of model uncertainty when evaluating cartel damages. We combine the Mallows model averaging (MMA) method with both the dummy variable (DV) and forecasting approaches to investigate the famous citric acid cartel case during the 1990s. The path of but-for prices generated from the MMA method with DV specification lies in-between those generated from the forecasting and DV methods, supporting the theoretical properties of the MMA method that weights over different forecasts generated from various candidate models. The findings indicate that the but-for prices generated from the MMA method could serve as a useful robustness check for cartel damage estimations.

本研究提供了一种易于实施的预测组合程序，以处理评估卡特尔损害时的模型不确定性问题。我们将锦葵模型平均 (MMA) 方法与虚拟变量 (DV) 和预测方法相结合，以调查 1990 年代著名的柠檬酸卡特尔案例。具有 DV 规范的 MMA 方法生成的价格路径介于预测和 DV 方法生成的路径之间，支持 MMA 方法的理论特性，该方法对从各种候选模型生成的不同预测进行加权。研究结果表明，从 MMA 方法生成的价格可以作为对卡特尔损害估计的有用的稳健性检查。