This study establishes a practical methodology for storm damage risk assessment and zoning for offshore cage culture by superimposing the vulnerability theory onto hydrodynamic modeling. The peak significant wave height is statistically correlated to the normalized fatigue load criteria at specified loading cycles to classify the destruction duration and damage state during storm events. The yield damage of the flotation pipe under cyclical wave oscillations was identified as the major failure mechanism of the sea cage. The structural failure risk would significantly decrease to 4.5-m waves, which is much lower than the manufacturing standard due to cumulative damage in a relatively short operation time. The wave-circulation model was applied to hindcast 112 high-impact typhoon scenarios in the study area for the return period analysis of the storm wave field. The damage risk distribution of the cage culture was mapped across the landscape to increase storm strength according to the vulnerability classification. The effectiveness of island shielding was explicitly revealed, and the leeward side was overall less risky as the return period increased, with the safe area shrinking inshore. For extreme conditions over a 100-year return period, the shield performance of leeward bays varied significantly due to the shoreline profile differences. Some existing cage deployment locations are at-risk relative to the structural resistance capability, whereas other unrecognized areas might be suitable for cage culture. These findings imply the necessity of storm risk assessment before proactive prevention measures and deployment zoning. The methodology may also be adapted to storm risk predictions for other facilities in the coastal ocean.

本研究通过将脆弱性理论叠加到水动力模型上，为海上网箱养殖的风暴损害风险评估和分区建立了实用方法。峰值显着波高在统计上与指定加载周期的归一化疲劳载荷标准相关，以对风暴事件期间的破坏持续时间和破坏状态进行分类。循环波振荡下浮选管的屈服损伤被确定为海笼的主要失效机制。结构失效风险将显着降低至 4.5 米波浪，由于在相对较短的运行时间内累积损坏，这远低于制造标准。应用波浪环流模型对研究区112个强影响台风情景进行后报，进行风暴波场重现期分析。根据脆弱性分类，网箱养殖的破坏风险分布在整个景观中被绘制出来，以增加风暴强度。岛屿屏蔽的有效性得到了明确的揭示，背风侧的风险总体上随着回归期的增加而降低，安全区域在近岸缩小。对于 100 年重现期的极端条件，背风湾的盾构性能因海岸线剖面差异而显着变化。一些现有的网箱部署位置相对于结构抵抗能力存在风险，而其他未被识别的区域可能适合网箱养殖。这些发现意味着在主动预防措施和部署分区之前进行风暴风险评估的必要性。该方法还可适用于沿海海洋其他设施的风暴风险预测。