Extraversion is a consistent predictor of informal leader emergence, however little is known about extraversion’s causal effect in terms of predicting the transition to formal leadership. Using two large household samples from Germany (Study 1, n₁ = 6,709) and Australia (Study 2, n₂ = 6,056), we test whether trait extraversion predicts the transition of employed persons into formal leadership positions. Using survival analysis with Cox proportional hazards regression within a non-linear generalised additive modelling (GAM) framework, we modelled the relationship between extraversion and the ‘hazard’ of transitioning into a formal leadership role. After controlling for sex, height, age, education and the other big five traits, we found that extraversion consistently predicted the hazard of transitioning into a formal leadership role over time. Given the importance of leadership to life outcomes, being more likely to transition into a formal leadership role may afford extraverts with considerable cumulative benefits over their career.

外向性是非正式领导者出现的一致预测指标，但是关于外向性在预测向正式领导的过渡方面的因果效应知之甚少。使用来自德国（研究 1， n ₁  = 6,709）和澳大利亚（研究 2，n ₂ ）的两个大型家庭样本 = 6,056），我们检验特质外向性是否能预测就业人员向正式领导职位的转变。在非线性广义加性建模 (GAM) 框架内使用 Cox 比例风险回归的生存分析，我们模拟了外向性与转变为正式领导角色的“风险”之间的关系。在控制了性别、身高、年龄、教育程度和其他五大特征后，我们发现外向性始终预测随着时间的推移转变为正式领导角色的风险。鉴于领导力对生活结果的重要性，更有可能转变为正式的领导角色可能会为外向者提供在其职业生涯中可观的累积收益。