Tropospheric ozone (O₃) levels in southern Europe have an increasing tendency, in close relation with the higher incidence of hot summers and heatwaves. Given that O₃ is one of the most damaging pollutants for vegetation, known to affect productivity and quality of crops, it is necessary to develop more rigorous and consistent methods of risk assessment that consider climate change conditions. Studying the O₃ deposition over the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR), which is one of the most productive wine areas in Portugal, and assessing its potential effects under a climate change scenario, was the purpose of this study. To that end, the chemical transport model CHIMERE, with a spatial resolution of 1 km², fed by meteorological data from the WRF model, was applied for a recent past climate (2003 to 2005) and future mid-term (2049 and 2064) and long-term (2096 and 2097) scenarios. Simulations for future climate were performed considering: i) only the climate change effect, and ii) the effect of climate change together with future air pollutant emissions. The assessment of the potential damage in terms of wine productivity and quality (sugar content) was performed through analysis of O₃ deposition and the application of concentration–response functions, based on AOT40 values. Modeling results show that a reduction in emission of O₃ precursors can successfully decrease AOT40 levels in the DDR, but it is not enough to accomplish the European Commission target value for the protection of vegetation. If the emissions remain constant, the exposure–response functions indicate that, in the long-term, AOT40 levels could worsen wine productivity and quality.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下臭氧对杜罗葡萄园的影响

欧洲南部的对流层臭氧 (O ₃ ) 水平有增加的趋势，这与炎热夏季和热浪的发生率较高密切相关。鉴于 O ₃是对植被最具破坏性的污染物之一，已知会影响作物的生产力和质量，因此有必要开发考虑气候变化条件的更严格和一致的风险评估方法。本研究的目的是研究杜罗划定地区 (DDR) 上的 O ₃沉积，该地区是葡萄牙最富产的葡萄酒产区之一，并评估其在气候变化情景下的潜在影响。为此，化学传输模型 CHIMERE，空间分辨率为 1 km ²由 WRF 模型的气象数据提供，应用于最近的过去气候（2003 年至 2005 年）和未来中期（2049 年和 2064 年）和长期（2096 年和 2097 年）情景。对未来气候的模拟进行了考虑：i) 仅考虑气候变化的影响，以及 ii) 气候变化的影响以及未来的空气污染物排放。根据 AOT40 值，通过分析 O ₃沉积和应用浓度-响应函数来评估葡萄酒生产力和质量（糖含量）方面的潜在损害。建模结果表明，O ₃排放量的减少前体可以成功降低 DDR 中的 AOT40 水平，但不足以完成欧盟委员会对植被保护的目标值。如果排放量保持不变，暴露-响应函数表明，从长远来看，AOT40 水平可能会降低葡萄酒的生产力和质量。