We developed a mechanistic, stage-structured model simulating the phenology of Popillia japonica. The model simulates the influence of soil temperature on the larval diapause termination and on the development rate function of post-overwintering larvae and pupae. Model parameters are estimated based on literature evidence for pupae development and on a parameterisation process that allows estimating parameters for larval diapause termination and for the development rate function (and the related uncertainty) of post-overwintering larvae. Data used for model parameterisation and validation refer to time-series adult trap catches collected during the P. japonica monitoring programme performed by the Phytosanitary Service of Lombardy Region within the infested area in Lombardy (Italy) from 2015 to 2019. A total of 12 randomly selected locations are used to estimate biologically realistic model parameters (parameterisation dataset). We applied a Jackknife nonparametric resampling procedure on the parameterisation dataset to quantify uncertainty associated with parameters’ estimates. Parameterised model is then validated on time-series adult trap catches data referring to a different set of 12 randomly selected locations (validation dataset) surveyed in Lombardy. The model successfully predicted the beginning of adult emergence and the overall curve of adult emergence in the validation dataset. The model presented can support the definition of the best timing for the implementation of monitoring and control activities for the local and the area-wide management of P. japonica.

我们开发了一个机械的、阶段结构的模型，模拟Popillia japonica的物候学。该模型模拟了土壤温度对幼虫滞育终止和越冬后幼虫和蛹发育速率函数的影响。模型参数是根据蛹发育的文献证据和参数化过程估计的，该过程允许估计幼虫滞育终止和越冬后幼虫发育速率函数（和相关不确定性）的参数。用于模型参数化和验证的数据是指在P. japonica期间收集的时间序列成虫陷阱捕获量2015 年至 2019 年由伦巴第大区植物检疫局在伦巴第（意大利）疫区执行的监测计划。总共使用了 12 个随机选择的位置来估计生物现实模型参数（参数化数据集）。我们在参数化数据集上应用了 Jackknife 非参数重采样程序来量化与参数估计相关的不确定性。然后，参数化模型在时间序列成人陷阱捕获数据上进行验证，这些数据涉及在伦巴第调查的一组不同的 12 个随机选择的位置（验证数据集）。该模型成功预测了验证数据集中成虫羽化的开始和成虫羽化的整体曲线。粳稻。