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Mathematical modelling for assessing the impact of intervention strategies on HIV/AIDS high risk group population dynamics
Heliyon ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-21 , DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07991
Stephen Onome Oyovwevotu 1
Affiliation  

The global economic importance of HIV/AIDS and inadequacy of the literature dealing with deterministic model on control strategy of HIV/AIDS that captures factors responsible for the spread of the disease in low income country is one among other factors responsible for the ill management of the disease in an endemic population. Thus, this study focuses on a novel deterministic mathematical model to assess the impact of intervention strategies on high risk group with drug quitters special case and drug users who are sexually active (duality case). Backward bifurcation, positivity of the model variables, sensitivity analysis, global stability of DFE and EEP are used to investigate the qualitative structure of the model. It was established that the duality effect of the force of infection spur by intravenous drug users who sexually active (IDUSA-special case) are responsible for backward (IDUSA) in the endemic population. Sensitivity analysis on IDU and MSM group shows that 20% decrease of the susceptible population of both classes will attenuate the transmission dynamics by 7.4% and 2.6% of the MSM and IDU class respectively. Further simulation, using demographic and epidemiological data available in Nigeria shows that the disease burden reduces with universal strategy than combined strategy.



中文翻译:

评估干预策略对 HIV/AIDS 高危人群人口动态影响的数学模型

艾滋病毒/艾滋病的全球经济重要性和处理艾滋病毒/艾滋病控制策略确定性模型的文献不足,该模型捕捉导致低收入国家疾病传播的因素,是导致艾滋病毒/艾滋病管理不善的其他因素之一。流行人群中的疾病。因此,本研究侧重于一种新的确定性数学模型,以评估干预策略对高危人群的影响,其中包括戒毒者特例和性活跃的吸毒者(双重病例)。后向分岔、模型变量的正性、敏感性分析、DFE和EEP的全局稳定性被用来研究模型的定性结构。已经确定,性活跃的静脉注射吸毒者(IDUSA-特例)感染刺激的双重作用是导致地方性流行人群落后(IDUSA)的原因。对 IDU 和 MSM 组的敏感性分析表明,两个类别的易感人群减少 20% 将使 MSM 和 IDU 类别的传播动态分别减弱 7.4% 和 2.6%。使用尼日利亚现有的人口统计和流行病学数据进行的进一步模拟表明,与综合策略相比,采用通用策略可以减少疾病负担。MSM 和 IDU 班级分别为 6%。使用尼日利亚现有的人口统计和流行病学数据进行的进一步模拟表明,与综合策略相比,采用通用策略可以减少疾病负担。MSM 和 IDU 班级分别为 6%。使用尼日利亚现有的人口统计和流行病学数据进行的进一步模拟表明,与综合策略相比,采用通用策略可以减少疾病负担。

更新日期:2021-10-01
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