Dengue virus (DENV) is an endemic disease in the hot and humid low-lands of Colombia. We characterize the association of monthly series of dengue cases with indices of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the tropical Pacific and local climatic variables in Colombia during the period 2007-2017 at different temporal and spatial scales. For estimation purposes, we use lagged cross-correlations (Pearson test), cross-wavelet analysis (wavelet cross spectrum, and wavelet coherence), as well as a novel nonlinear causality method, PCMCI, that allows identifying common causal drivers and links among high dimensional simultaneous and time-lagged variables. Our results evidence the strong association of DENV cases in Colombia with ENSO indices and with local temperature and rainfall. El Niño (La Niña) phenomenon is related to an increase (decrease) of dengue cases nationally and in most regions and departments, with maximum correlations occurring at shorter time lags in the Pacific and Andes regions, closer to the Pacific Ocean. This association is mainly explained by the ENSO-driven increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall, especially in the Andes and Pacific regions. The influence of ENSO is not stationary, given the reduction of DENV cases since 2005, and that local climate variables vary in space and time, which prevents to extrapolate results from one region to another. The association between DENV and ENSO varies at national and regional scales when data are disaggregated by seasons, being stronger in DJF and weaker in SON. Overall, the Pacific and Andes regions control the relationship between dengue dynamics and ENSO at national scale. Cross-wavelet analysis indicates that the ENSO-DENV relation in Colombia exhibits a strong coherence in the 12 to 16-months frequency band, which implies the frequency locking between the annual cycle and the interannual (ENSO) timescales. Results of nonlinear causality metrics reveal the complex concomitant effects of ENSO and local climate variables, while offering new insights to develop early warning systems for DENV in Colombia.

登革热病毒 (DENV) 是哥伦比亚炎热潮湿的低地地区的一种地方病。我们描述了 2007-2017 年期间不同时空尺度上的月度登革热病例系列与热带太平洋厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (ENSO) 指数和哥伦比亚当地气候变量之间的关联。出于估计目的，我们使用滞后互相关（Pearson 检验）、交叉小波分析（小波交叉谱和小波相干性）以及一种新颖的非线性因果关系方法 PCMCI，它允许识别高维同时和时滞变量。我们的结果证明哥伦比亚的 DENV 病例与 ENSO 指数以及当地温度和降雨量之间存在很强的关联。厄尔尼诺（La Niña）现象与全国和大多数地区和部门的登革热病例增加（减少）有关，在太平洋和安第斯山脉地区，靠近太平洋的时间滞后较短时，相关性最大。这种关联主要是由 ENSO 驱动的温度升高和降雨量减少来解释的，特别是在安第斯山脉和太平洋地区。鉴于自 2005 年以来 DENV 病例的减少，ENSO 的影响不是固定的，并且当地气候变量在空间和时间上有所不同，这阻止了将结果从一个地区外推到另一个地区。当数据按季节分解时，DENV 和 ENSO 之间的关联在国家和区域尺度上有所不同，在 DJF 中较强，在 SON 中较弱。总体，太平洋和安第斯地区在全国范围内控制着登革热动力学与 ENSO 之间的关系。交叉小波分析表明，哥伦比亚的 ENSO-DENV 关系在 12 至 16 个月的频段内表现出很强的相干性，这意味着年周期和年际 (ENSO) 时间尺度之间的频率锁定。非线性因果关系度量的结果揭示了 ENSO 和当地气候变量的复杂伴随影响，同时为哥伦比亚 DENV 的早期预警系统开发提供了新的见解。