This study develops a risk status evaluation model by integrating the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methods. The excavation system is divided into subsystems based on the monitoring scheme. The TOPSIS method integrates the information on the influential factors, and MCS overcomes the uncertainty, fuzziness, and human errors in data collection. A comprehensive weight determination method is proposed to determine the weights of the influential factors. The developed model was applied to evaluate the risk status of excavation projects in Tianjin. The results were consistent with the actual conditions of the excavation system. The higher correlation factors in the evaluation results can be identified through correlation analysis. Finally, a value for the ideal parameter λ in the membership function is recommended through sensitivity analysis. The developed model provides guidelines for establishing early risk warnings and management for excavation engineering.

本研究通过将基于相似于理想解决方案的订单偏好技术 (TOPSIS) 和蒙特卡罗模拟 (MCS) 方法相结合，开发了风险状态评估模型。挖掘系统根据监测方案分为多个子系统。TOPSIS 方法整合了影响因素的信息，MCS 克服了数据收集中的不确定性、模糊性和人为错误。提出了一种综合权重确定方法来确定影响因素的权重。应用开发的模型来评估天津开挖项目的风险状况。结果与开挖系统的实际情况一致。通过相关性分析，可以识别出评价结果中相关性较高的因素。最后，理想参数的值通过敏感性分析推荐隶属函数中的λ。开发的模型为建立挖掘工程的早期风险预警和管理提供了指导。