Technological learning for resource efficient terawatt scale photovoltaics,Energy & Environmental Science

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Technological learning for resource efficient terawatt scale photovoltaics
Energy & Environmental Science ( IF 32.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-17 , DOI: 10.1039/d1ee02497c
Jan Christoph Goldschmidt ₁ , Lukas Wagner ₁ , Robert Pietzcker ₂ , Lorenz Friedrich ₁

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Cost efficient climate change mitigation requires installing a total of 20–80 TW_p photovoltaics until 2050 and 80–170 TW_p until 2100. The question is, whether the projected growth is feasible from a resource point of view – and if so, under which conditions. We assess demand for fundamental resources until the year 2100, which are necessary independently from the specific nature of the used PV technology, i.e. energy, float-glass, and capital investments, and addtionally silver. Without technological learning serious resource constraints will arise. On the other hand, continued technological learning at current rates would be sufficient to stay within reasonable boundaries. With such technological learning, energy demand for production will correspond to 2–5% of global energy consumption leading to cumulative greenhouse gas emissions of 4–11% of the 1.5 °C emission budget. Glass demand might still exceed current float-glass production, requiring capacity expansion; and silver consumption could be kept at current levels. Installations costs would be 300–600 billion $US₂₀₂₀ per year. Technological solutions enabling such learning are foreseeable, nevertheless current and future investments must not only be targeted at capacity expansion but also at upholding the currently high rate of innovation.

中文翻译：

资源高效太瓦级光伏的技术学习

具有成本效益的气候变化减缓需要在 2050 年之前安装总共 20-80 TW _{p 的}光伏，直到 2100 年安装80-170 TW _p。问题是，从资源的角度来看，预计的增长是否可行——如果是，那么状况。我们评估到 2100 年对基本资源的需求，这些需求独立于所用光伏技术的特定性质，即能源、浮法玻璃和资本投资，以及白银。如果没有技术学习，就会出现严重的资源限制。另一方面，以目前的速度持续学习技术就足以保持在合理的范围内。通过这种技术学习，生产能源需求将相当于全球能源消耗的 2-5%，导致累积温室气体排放量占 1.5°C 排放预算的 4-11%。玻璃需求可能仍会超过目前的浮法玻璃产量，需要扩大产能；白银消费可以保持在当前水平。_{2020 年}安装成本为 300-6000 亿美元每年。支持此类学习的技术解决方案是可以预见的，但当前和未来的投资不仅要针对产能扩张，还要针对维持当前的高创新率。

更新日期：2021-09-20

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