This paper employs a structural vector autoregression model with non-recursive contemporaneous restrictions to study the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) effects on domestic prices in Tunisia for the period January 2000 to February 2019. Thus, we have introduced four blocks that represent the foreign market, domestic goods market, money market and foreign exchange market. The results suggest that the ERPT to import price index (MPI) is large and rapid: 42% in the short run and 60% in the medium run. ERPT to producer price index (PPI) is relatively long and modest: 1% in the short run and 6% in the medium run. ERPT to consumer price index (CPI) is relatively rapid and modest: 3% in the short run and 7% in the medium run. The findings also show that PPI contributes the most to CPI fluctuations, while money supply and the world oil price contribute the most to interest rate variations. This suggests that the Central Bank of Tunisia is trying to indirectly control inflation. Therefore, the phasing out of administered prices should improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.

中文翻译：

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突尼斯的价格通胀和汇率传递

本文采用具有非递归同期限制的结构向量自回归模型来研究 2000 年 1 月至 2019 年 2 月期间突尼斯国内价格的汇率传递 (ERPT) 效应。因此，我们引入了代表国外市场、国内商品市场、货币市场和外汇市场。结果表明，ERPT 对进口价格指数（MPI）大而快：短期为 42%，中期为 60%。ERPT 与生产者价格指数 (PPI) 的关系相对较长且适中：短期为 1%，中期为 6%。ERPT 与消费者价格指数 (CPI) 的关系相对较快且适中：短期为 3%，中期为 7%。调查结果还表明，PPI 对 CPI 波动的贡献最大，而货币供应量和世界石油价格对利率变化的贡献最大。这表明突尼斯中央银行正试图间接控制通货膨胀。因此，逐步取消管理价格应该会提高货币政策的有效性。