The incidence of zoonotic diseases is increasing worldwide, which makes identifying parasites likely to become zoonotic and hosts likely to harbour zoonotic parasites a critical concern. Prior work indicates that there is a higher risk of zoonotic spillover accruing from closely related hosts and from hosts that are infected with a high phylogenetic diversity of parasites. This suggests that host and parasite evolutionary history may be important drivers of spillover, but identifying whether host–parasite associations are more strongly structured by the host, parasite or both requires co-phylogenetic analyses that combine host–parasite association data with host and parasite phylogenies. Here, we use host–parasite datasets containing associations between helminth taxa and free-range mammals in combination with phylogenetic models to explore whether host, parasite, or both host and parasite evolutionary history influences host–parasite associations. We find that host phylogenetic history is most important for driving patterns of helminth-mammal association, indicating that zoonoses are most likely to come from a host's close relatives. More broadly, our results suggest that co-phylogenetic analyses across broad taxonomic scales can provide a novel perspective for surveying potential emerging infectious diseases.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.

人畜共患病的发病率在世界范围内不断增加，这使得识别可能成为人畜共患病的寄生虫和可能携带人畜共患寄生虫的宿主成为一个关键问题。先前的工作表明，从密切相关的宿主和感染了高度系统发育多样性寄生虫的宿主中产生人畜共患病溢出的风险更高。这表明宿主和寄生虫的进化历史可能是溢出的重要驱动因素，但确定宿主 - 寄生虫关联是否由宿主、寄生虫或两者更强地构成需要将宿主 - 寄生虫关联数据与宿主和寄生虫系统发育相结合的共系统发育分析. 这里，我们使用包含蠕虫类群和自由放养哺乳动物之间关联的宿主 - 寄生虫数据集，结合系统发育模型来探索宿主、寄生虫或宿主和寄生虫的进化历史是否影响宿主 - 寄生虫关联。我们发现宿主系统发育史对于蠕虫-哺乳动物关联的驱动模式最重要，表明人畜共患病最有可能来自宿主的近亲。更广泛地说，我们的结果表明，跨广泛分类学尺度的共系统发育分析可以为调查潜在的新兴传染病提供新的视角。表明人畜共患病最有可能来自宿主的近亲。更广泛地说，我们的结果表明，跨广泛分类学尺度的共系统发育分析可以为调查潜在的新兴传染病提供新的视角。表明人畜共患病最有可能来自宿主的近亲。更广泛地说，我们的结果表明，跨广泛分类学尺度的共系统发育分析可以为调查潜在的新兴传染病提供新的视角。

本文是主题问题“传染病宏观生态学：全球寄生虫多样性和动态”的一部分。