Land-use change has a direct impact on species survival and reproduction, altering their spatio-temporal distributions. It acts as a selective force that favours the abundance and diversity of reservoir hosts and affects host–pathogen dynamics and prevalence. This has led to land-use change being a significant driver of infectious diseases emergence. Here, we predict the presence of rodent taxa and map the zoonotic hazard (potential sources of harm) from rodent-borne diseases in the short and long term (2025 and 2050). The study considers three different land-use scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways narratives (SSPs): sustainable (SSP1-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6), fossil-fuelled development (SSP5-RCP 8.5) and deepening inequality (SSP4-RCP 6.0). We found that cropland expansion into forest and pasture may increase zoonotic hazards in areas with high rodent-species diversity. Nevertheless, a future sustainable scenario may not always reduce hazards. All scenarios presented high heterogeneity in zoonotic hazard, with high-income countries having the lowest hazard range. The SSPs narratives suggest that opening borders and reducing cropland expansion are critical to mitigate current and future zoonotic hazards globally, particularly in middle- and low-income economies. Our study advances previous efforts to anticipate the emergence of zoonotic diseases by integrating past, present and future information to guide surveillance and mitigation of zoonotic hazards at the regional and local scale.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.

土地利用变化直接影响物种的生存和繁殖，改变其时空分布。它作为一种选择力，有利于储存宿主的丰富性和多样性，并影响宿主-病原体的动态和流行。这导致土地利用变化成为传染病出现的重要驱动因素。在这里，我们预测啮齿动物类群的存在，并绘制短期和长期（2025 年和 2050 年）啮齿动物传播疾病的人畜共患病危害（潜在危害源）。该研究基于共享的社会经济路径叙述（SSP）考虑了三种不同的土地利用情景：可持续（SSP1-代表性集中路径（RCP）2.6）、化石燃料发展（SSP5-RCP 8.5）和日益加深的不平等（SSP4-RCP） 6.0）。我们发现，在啮齿动物物种多样性较高的地区，农田扩展到森林和牧场可能会增加人畜共患病的危害。然而，未来的可持续情景可能并不总能减少危害。所有情景都呈现出人畜共患病危害的高度异质性，高收入国家的危害范围最低。SSP 的叙述表明，开放边界和减少农田扩张对于减轻全球当前和未来的人畜共患病危害至关重要，特别是在中低收入经济体。我们的研究通过整合过去、现在和未来的信息来指导区域和地方规模的人畜共患危害的监测和减轻，从而推进了先前预测人畜共患疾病出现的努力。

本文是“传染病宏观生态学：全球寄生虫多样性和动态”主题的一部分。