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Comparative analysis of daily and hourly temperature variability in association with all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality in 45 US cities
Environmental Science and Pollution Research Pub Date : 2021-09-19 , DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-16476-9
Yong Yu 1 , Siqi Luo 2 , Yunquan Zhang 2 , Linjiong Liu 2 , Ke Wang 3 , Le Hong 2 , Qun Wang 1
Affiliation  

Temperature variability (TV) has been widely associated with increased mortality risk and burden. Extensive researches have used the standard deviations of several days’ daily maximum and minimum temperatures or hourly mean temperatures as daily and hourly TV measures (TVdaily and TVhourly). However, comparative analysis of daily and hourly TV related to cardiorespiratory mortality is still limited. We collected daily mortality and meteorological data in 45 US metropolises, 1987–2000. A three-stage analysis was adopted to investigate TV-mortality associations using TVdaily and TVhourly as exposure metrics. We first applied a time-series quasi-Poisson regression to estimate location-specific TV-mortality relationships, which were then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis with maximum likelihood estimation. We additionally calculated attributable fraction (AF) as a reflection of mortality burden associated with TV. Stratified analyses by age were also performed to identify the susceptible group to TV-related risks. There were a total of 15.4 million all-cause deaths, of which 6.1 million were from cardiovascular causes and 1.2 million were from respiratory causes. Per 1 °C increase in TVdaily and TVhourly was associated with an increase of 0.53% (95% confidence interval: 0.31–0.76%) and 0.52% (0.26–0.79%) in cardiovascular mortality risks, 0.62% (0.26–0.98%) and 0.53% (0.13–0.94%) in respiratory mortality risks. Estimates of cardiovascular AF for TVdaily and TVhourly were 2.43% (1.42–3.43%) vs. 1.63% (0.82–2.43%), whereas estimates of respiratory AF were 3.07% (1.11–4.99%) vs. 1.89% (0.43–3.34%). Both daily and hourly TV indexes showed approximately linear relationships with different mortality categories and similar lag patterns, but greater fractions were estimated using TVdaily than those using TVhourly. People over 75 years old were relatively more vulnerable to TV-induced risks of mortality. In conclusion, both TVdaily and TVhourly significantly increased all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality risks and burden. Daily and hourly TV metrics exhibited comparable effects of mortality risk, while greater mortality burden was estimated using TVdaily than TVhourly. Our findings may add significance to TV-mortality research and help to promote optimal health management strategies to better mitigate TV-related health effects.



中文翻译:

美国 45 个城市每日和每小时温度变化与全因死亡率和心肺死亡率相关的比较分析

温度变化 (TV) 与死亡风险和负担的增加广泛相关。广泛的研究使用了几天的每日最高和最低气温或每小时平均气温的标准差作为每日和每小时电视测量值(每日电视和电视每小时)。然而,与心肺死亡率相关的每日和每小时电视的比较分析仍然有限。我们收集了 1987-2000 年美国 45 个大都市的每日死亡率和气象数据。采用三阶段分析来调查使用每日电视和每小时电视的电视死亡率关联作为曝光指标。我们首先应用时间序列准泊松回归来估计特定位置的电视死亡率关系,然后使用具有最大似然估计的随机效应荟萃分析将其汇总。我们还计算了归因分数 (AF) 作为与电视相关的死亡率负担的反映。还按年龄进行了分层分析,以确定易受电视相关风险影响的人群。共有 1540 万人死于全因,其中 610 万人死于心血管疾病,120 万人死于呼吸系统疾病。每日电视和每小时电视每增加 1°C与心血管死亡风险分别增加 0.53%(95% 置信区间:0.31-0.76%)和 0.52%(0.26-0.79%)、0.62%(0.26-0.98%)和 0.53%(0.13-0.94%)相关呼吸系统死亡风险。每日电视和每小时电视的心血管 AF 估计值为2.43% (1.42–3.43%) 与 1.63% (0.82–2.43%),而呼吸 AF 估计值为 3.07% (1.11–4.99%) 与 1.89% (0.43 –3.34%)。每日和每小时电视指数均显示出与不同死亡率类别和相似滞后模式的近似线性关系,但使用每日电视估计的分数比使用每小时电视的更大。75 岁以上的人相对更容易受到电视引起的死亡风险的影响。总之,无论是电视每天每小时电视显着增加全因和心肺死亡风险和负担。每日和每小时电视指标显示出可比的死亡风险影响,而使用每天电视比每小时电视估计的死亡率负担更大。我们的研究结果可能会增加电视死亡率研究的意义,并有助于促进最佳健康管理策略,以更好地减轻与电视相关的健康影响。

更新日期:2021-09-19
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