The study of civil war recurrence is situated at the intersection of conflict and peacebuilding. These literatures focus on disparate definitions of peace. These literatures provide different explanations for variation in peace stability, and cover a large number of causal factors. We argue that these causal mechanisms are connected and conditioned by public policy. Specifically, we argue that the production and distribution of public goods post-conflict contribute to the maintenance of negative peace by acting as a credible commitment mechanism. In addition, public goods contribute to the building of positive peace when there is shared access to goods and services. We investigate the impact of public goods provision ‒ measured as health funding and distribution ‒ on causal mechanisms including opportunity, grievance, greed, and credible commitments. Using a duration model, we find that health spending, as a measure of public goods provision, is a strong predictor of the durability of peace after civil conflict.

内战复发的研究位于冲突与和平建设的交叉点。这些文献侧重于和平的不同定义。这些文献对和平稳定性的变化提供了不同的解释，并涵盖了大量的因果因素。我们认为，这些因果机制与公共政策相关并受其制约。具体而言，我们认为冲突后公共物品的生产和分配通过充当可信的承诺机制有助于维持消极和平。此外，当共享获取商品和服务的机会时，公共商品有助于建立积极的和平。我们调查了公共物品提供——以卫生资金和分配来衡量——对因果机制的影响，包括机会、不满、贪婪、和可信的承诺。使用持续时间模型，我们发现，作为衡量公共产品供应的一种衡量标准，医疗支出是内战后和平持久性的有力预测指标。