Abstract

A budget stabilization fund (BSF) is an important fiscal instrument for states to stabilize their budgets, but studies have found varying results regarding its impact. We conduct a meta-analysis to determine whether and under what conditions BSFs can serve as an effective countercyclical tool. By synthesizing a total of 540 effect sizes from 23 original studies, we find that on average, BSFs have a moderate positive effect on government savings and a small negative effect on fiscal stress. Additionally, strict withdrawal rules seem to attenuate the positive relationship between BSFs and government savings, and compromise the negative relationship between BSFs and fiscal stress. The presence of budget balance requirements, party conflict and some other environmental factors may also moderate the BSF-savings and BSF-stress relationships. This research contributes to the BSF literature and provides useful policy recommendations for state governments to consider when designing or revising their BSF legislations.

摘要

预算稳定基金 (BSF) 是各州稳定预算的重要财政工具，但研究发现其影响的结果各不相同。我们进行了一项荟萃分析，以确定 BSF 是否以及在什么条件下可以作为有效的反周期工具。通过综合来自 23 项原始研究的总共 540 个效应量，我们发现平均而言，BSF 对政府储蓄的积极影响适中，对财政压力的消极影响较小。此外，严格的提款规则似乎削弱了 BSF 与政府储蓄之间的正向关系，并削弱了 BSF 与财政压力之间的负向关系。预算平衡要求、政党冲突和其他一些环境因素的存在也可能缓和 BSF 储蓄和 BSF 压力关系。