We analyse how Brexit will affect European agrifood trade using a structural gravity model and by comparing the present deal to four alternative scenarios on the UK’s trade policy. European Union (EU) countries will suffer marginal drops in imports, exports and real income, with stronger effects for Ireland. EU exports to the UK will drop by 10 per cent. European products will be redirected to both intra-EU and extra-EU markets and sold at slightly lower prices. Meat products will suffer the largest losses, Ireland being particularly vulnerable due to strong interconnections with British production chains and increased costs for accessing EU and extra-EU markets.

中文翻译：

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英国脱欧将如何影响欧洲农产品和食品出口的格局？

我们使用结构重力模型分析英国退欧将如何影响欧洲农产品贸易，并将目前的协议与英国贸易政策的四种替代方案进行比较。欧盟 (EU) 国家的进口、出口和实际收入将略有下降，对爱尔兰的影响更大。欧盟对英国的出口将下降 10%。欧洲产品将被重定向到欧盟内部和欧盟外市场，并以略低的价格出售。肉类产品将遭受最大损失，由于与英国生产链的紧密联系以及进入欧盟和欧盟以外市场的成本增加，爱尔兰尤其脆弱。