Priorresearch has produced varied results regarding the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on crime rates, depending on the offenses and time periods under investigation. The current study of weekly offense rates in large U.S. cities is based on a longer time period, a greater number of offenses than prior research, and a varying number of cities for each offense (max = 28, min = 13, md = 20). We find that weekly property crime and drug offense rates, averaged across the cities, fell during the pandemic. An exception is motor vehicle theft, which trended upward after pandemic-related population restrictions were instituted in March 2020. Robbery rates also declined immediately after the pandemic began. Average weekly homicide, aggravated assault, and gun assault rates did not exhibit statistically significant increases after March. Beginning in June 2020, however, significant increases in these offenses were detected, followed by declines in the late summer and fall. Fixed-effects regression analyses disclose significant decreases in aggravated assault, robbery, and larceny rates associated with reduced residential mobility during the pandemic. These results support the routine activity hypothesis that the dispersion of activity away from households increases crime rates. The results for the other offenses are less supportive.

中文翻译：

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犯罪、隔离和美国冠状病毒大流行


先前的研究就冠状病毒大流行对犯罪率的影响得出了不同的结果，具体取决于犯罪行为和调查时间段。当前对美国大城市每周犯罪率的研究是基于比之前的研究更长的时间段、更多的犯罪数量以及每次犯罪的不同城市数量（最大= 28，最小= 13，MD = 20） 。我们发现，在大流行期间，各城市平均每周财产犯罪和毒品犯罪率有所下降。一个例外是机动车盗窃，在 2020 年 3 月实施与大流行相关的人口限制后，机动车盗窃呈上升趋势。大流行开始后，抢劫率也立即下降。 3 月份之后，平均每周凶杀案、严重袭击事件和枪支袭击事件的发生率并未出现统计上显着的增长。然而，从 2020 年 6 月开始，这些犯罪行为被发现显着增加，随后夏末和秋季有所下降。固定效应回归分析显示，与大流行期间居住流动性减少相关的严重袭击、抢劫和盗窃率显着下降。这些结果支持了日常活动假设，即活动远离家庭会增加犯罪率。其他罪行的结果则不太支持。